Cincinatti ATP 1000

[stroke]

Ha I do miss a lot of points, and a lot of picks. I think in hindsight I should have picked Novak to win. I am not sure I am going to pick a winner on the Novak Zverev match. I am just not feeling good about myself.

[don_budge]

Novak a big favorite of course vs Taylor with an implied winning percentage of about 81%. Not much better betting odds for Taylor than 0-19 Monfils had. I would actually take Taylor in this match as a bettor. He has had good play as of late and he has true self belief, unlike Gael. Furthermore, I am not at all certain if this match is close, Novak will be in the mood to go all in, into his inimitable clinical lock down mode. He has 38 Masters 1000 titles thus far, in addition to the never to be seen again record of winning all of them twice. Certainly this match means pretty much nothing to Novak at this point. For Taylor and Morgan, the significance of this match could not be in starker contrast. Taylor is in his absolute prime, he has the game, we will see.

I disagree...this match meant quite a lot to Novak in hindsight and I'm quite surprised you missed the point. Novak needed this match to confirm to himself he has reached a certain level of consistency in his performance. Afterall we all know that the mantra of a tennis player is "preparation...preparation...preparation". Novak put enough pressure on himself to extend his combined winning Head to Head against "The Amazing Mr. Monfils" and "Taylor and Company" to comfy 26-0. Lopsided much? He's made a career of lockdown against Monfils/Fritz. Now the question becomes one of Djokovic versus Zverev. Novak owns a 7-4 advantage against Zverev Head to Head. Does he really need this match? Because if he wins he almost assures himself a rematch against his young nemesis...Alcarez. Novak can legitimately lose against Zverev and get himself another period of acclimating to a hostile United States of America where he has been banned for almost two years. Maybe do a little vacationing with the family while working on his fitness and other preparatory items on his bucket list leading up to the U. S. Open. There he must be prepared to work himself into the tournament on a match by match basis which he will make certain he is capable by measuring his steps leading up to it.

He could bow out "valiantly" against the "Prince Valiant" cropped Zverev and let Alcarez go on chasing his ATP 1000's records which by the time Carlos reaches Novak will certainly not even care a bit. He'll be nearly 60 years old. But never mind...the bottom line is Novak "certainly this match means pretty much nothing to Novak at this point". The last thing he needs right now is a rematch with Senor Skunk Jr. Nadal Lite. Better to wait and prepare for a rematch in the coliseum in New York where there will be all kinds of pressure of a different kind.

Interesting that Carlos Alcarez looks to be somewhat vulnerable against opponents who are willing to push the envelope to the net. Both Tommy Paul and "Mad Max" Purcell looked to take their chances on a do or die net approach than opt for the strangulation on the baseline. Intelligent tennis and it requires tools. Tools today that are far to uncommon and nearly extinct on the ATP tour. Someone should have tried this on the grass at Wimbledon but I cannot remember if there was an opponent with the prerequisite tool kit. Too bad the "Big Three" is missing in action. Know what I mean?

[stroke]

It's barely even a rivalry when you think about it as Gael has never won an ATP match against Novak. Gael might as well go on with a white flag. I will say one thing though...the kid can move and holds the record for the best get I have ever seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtuf12Uw1dk&t=46s

It is about as far from a "rivalry" as it gets ha.

[stroke]

Purcell is quite the all court tennis player out her extending Alcaraz into the 3rd set. A very nice all court game. Great hands. His volley technique is beautiful. Reminds me of the great Pat Cash.

[stotty]

https://www.tennis.com/news/videos/a...y-drink-in-usa

It's barely even a rivalry when you think about it as Gael has never won an ATP match against Novak. Gael might as well go on with a white flag. I will say one thing though...the kid can move and holds the record for the best get I have ever seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtuf12Uw1dk&t=46s

[stroke]

https://www.tennis.com/news/videos/andy-roddick-novak-djokovic-record-gael-monfils-can-almost-legally-drink-in-usa

[stroke]

Novak a big favorite of course vs Taylor with an implied winning percentage of about 81%. Not much better betting odds for Taylor than 0-19 Monfils had. I would actually take Taylor in this match as a bettor. He has had good play as of late and he has true self belief, unlike Gael. Furthermore, I am not at all certain if this match is close, Novak will be in the mood to go all in, into his inimitable clinical lock down mode. He has 38 Masters 1000 titles thus far, in addition to the never to be seen again record of winning all of them twice. Certainly this match means pretty much nothing to Novak at this point. For Taylor and Morgan, the significance of this match could not be in starker contrast. Taylor is in his absolute prime, he has the game, we will see.

[don_budge]

Results and performance trends. Analysis indeed. There is something about recent results and trends that raise a red flag. Some outside the box thinking is required here. The top seeds are falling like flies. Currently remaining in the tournament is Alcarez, who is seeded 1, versus Max Purcell who is a qualifier. Next match is Huber Hurkacz, unseeded, versus Alexei Popyrin who was a lucky loser. Adrian Mannarino, quirky unseeded, versus number 16 seed Alexander Zverev. Number 9 seeded Taylor Fritz against number 2 seeded Novak Djokovic rounds out the surviving players.

Only three of the top ten seeds remain. There is a lot of rumbling on the tour as of late about the scheduling. Much has been heard on the women's side. This is interesting. What is it that is the relationship about the poor performance and the top seeds. Traveling across time zones and trying to maintain the required equilibrium to perform is very, very tricky. It seems that the old wily veterans have this down to a science. A poor nights sleep is going to have a detrimental effect on performance the next day...unless you can somehow soldier through.

[stroke]

Tommy Paul certainly seems comfortable battling Alcaraz. They are going to a 3rd, and it looks like a toss up. Stan goes out somewhat meekly to Purcell.

[stroke]

Oddsmakers are liking Monfils to make it 19 in a row vs Novak. Novak with an implied probability of winning at 87%. Stef was simply rountined by Hurcatz. Zverev with a great win for him over Wall of Med.

[don_budge]

2 very interesting results today...

There were more than two interesting results...but I guess that is why I am a self declared performance analyst. I don't analyze just tennis by the way. Performance in general. It could be an old dog. Or even the way my wife does the dishes.

The "Amazing Mr. Monfils" win is somewhat predictable. Monfils appears to be in very, very good form. Besides, he had a prior win over de Minaur. de Minaur...do I capitalize the "d" if it is at the beginning of the sentence. Where is bottle when you need him? de Minaur had just lost in the finals on Sunday and then had a three setter to kick off Cincinnati. He was toast most likely. Look for more inconsistency from Tsitsipas. He is in love...not in his right mind. Plus there is turmoil in the camp. DaddyO is gone. Most likely something about the girlfriend. The new coach is an untested entity. I'm not so sure about Tsitsipas going forwards. He seems to be rather enamored with himself. Probably spends more time looking the mirror these days and he loves what he sees. But the game has suffered. When he first hit the tour he was a pretty tough competitor. Now he seems to be more vulnerable with the big target between his shoulder blades. So I don't find his results very compelling at all. He just doesn't interest me like he could have...potentially speaking. I'm really tired of that hitch in his serve.

The fact that both Sinner and de Minaur lost early in this tournament is somewhat telling as well. These new kids just aren't as tough as they used to make them. It seems to me that they are young and should be able to bounce back from week to week. But so many recently have gone this same route. Big results one week then an early exit the next. Here are three more losers to contemplate...Ruud, Rublev and Rune. All losers to lesser ranked players early in the tournament. Could it be that they are beginning to measure there steps to the U. S. Open? Again...all young guys. Should not have to pace themselves. But all losers. Ruud in particular has been struggling. Rune is showing signs of going down the same route. Rublev...not so sure about him. Interesting results. Or not. While I am at it, I have to mention Felix Auger-Aliassime. It is as if he has disappeared. So either it is injury or it is expectations. Lack of consistency. Once upon a time they were the next and the next thing you know...palookaville. I could have been a contender???

Going forwards...Stan Wawrinka may have a better than even chance against Max Purcell. Purcell looked to be doing a bit of serving and volleying when I briefly dropped in on his "Ruud" match. "The Amazing Mr. Monfils" suddenly morphs into "Nobody beats me 19 times in a row" against Novax Djokovic. Mackenzie McDonald and the crafty French left...Adriano Mannarino. Tommy once again up against the latest and the greatest...Carlito Alcarez. So many somewhat interesting matches but not a single one worth watching. Perhaps Monfils and Djokovic until Novak starts to deliver the haymakers. Not one single player to catch the imagination of the tennis base week in and week out. When Roger Federer was playing the whole draw sheet became interesting as one looked to project out potential opponents for the Roger versus Anybody show.

For now the "Match of the Day" is up for grabs. It's like an eight way tie.

[stroke]

https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/stan-the-man-comes-to-the-grandstand-at-the-western-southern-open

[stroke]

2 very interesting results today, Monfils over Demon, and Tsitsipas over Sheldon. Monfils, with a great win, Stroke missed on my prognostication, but lost no money. Monfils uses an old school type racquet, flexible, heavy, with a high swingweight. Kind of like Novak and Wawrinka, to name a couple. That hammer is evident in his shot production. Tsitsipas did very well to get past Sheldon in 2 tiebreakers. Sheldon has a very live arm serve(lefty which makes it more lethal), which is about the ultimate weapon tennis wise. It reminds me a bit of Wayne Arthurs, probably one of the best 5 serves of all time, who hardly anyone remembers.

[stroke]

Clearly a disappointing loss by Sinner vs Lajovic. Lajovic hits a big ball off both sides, great technique that reminds me of Stan, but still not a good loss for Sinner. Lajovic is one of those guys that I think certainly has the game to be top 20, but there is that pesky mental side.

[stroke]

Gael "The Amazing Mr. Monfils" Monfils eliminates the "The Great Back Stabber" Norrie in a come from behind effort that featured an extended injury timeout by Amazing. de Minaur next whom Monfils also owns a 1-0 Head to Head record against. Would you bet against him?

Demon is the oddsmakers solid favorite, rightfully so to me. I would bet on the Demon. That injury time out did not pass the smell test to me, not that it matters. I am still in favor of completely doing away with the injury time outs.