Australian Open

[stotty]

Great win for Fonseca. It was on the cards, as stroke predicted. In a game these days where everyone possesses a great forehand, Fonseca's is just that bit better than most. You simply cannot afford to leave anything sitting around or it's as good as toast. The thing is his backhand isn't too shoddy either - in fact it is beautifully produced. It will be interesting to see how far he goes in the tournament. He seems a decent bloke...not too much drama.

[stroke]

https://youtu.be/VXgB6wUqwEM?si=OM8xBdBiQRhRk003

[stroke]

Hard to say what was most impressive about Fonseca win over Rublev in 3 sets. Rublev did not go away, he fought as hard as he could for the 3rd set, but Fonseca seems to have that Fed Nadal mentality of wanting to win every set period. There is no rope-a-dope reprieve. Fonseca appears to have entered the conversation of the best forehand in the world, along with Sinner, Alcaraz, and Novak.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/dvRnNN62pxbbpZxn9

[stroke]

Tsitsipas goes out to Mickelson and did not hide how down he was feeling about it in his post match interview. Kyrgios goes out tamely to Fearnley. It was certainly good to see that. Fabio withdraws from tournament prior to match vs Dimitrov.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/79xtVGrdW9haJ4B76

[jimlosaltos]

Nice to see Kei Nishikori after all his injuries coming back for a 5 set victory at 35 yo.
This win ties Kei with Djoko for the highest win percentage in 5 set matches of any active player.

Ruud also won in 5 sets as he continues trying to amp up his aggression on hard courts: "Ruud struck 48 winners to 37 unforced errors and produced his best level in the fifth set, winning 93 per cent (13/14) of his first-serve points"

[stotty]

https://www.tennis365.com/tennis-fea...-jannik-sinner

Could not agree more with Roddick.

Ouch...

[stroke]

https://www.tennis365.com/tennis-features/andy-roddick-nick-kyrgios-row-jannik-sinner

Could not agree more with Roddick.

[stroke]

Best first round match for me is going to be Fognini vs Dimitrov. The Italian is bound to be up for it and they are two of the best players you could ever watch if they are firing on all cylinders. I agree Fonseca could cut the Goblin in half, and I'm hoping he does...very dull game that Rublev.

I like the Goblin, seems like a likeable chap, but his matchup is about as bad as it gets with Fonseca. I also noticed that Fabio vs Dimitrov matchup. Very intriguing, definitely my number 2 match of the day. I think Fognini is probably the second best overall tennis technique out there after Fed, but I do not like his chances best of 5 vs a very talented AND worker like Grigor.

[stotty]

Best first round match for me is going to be Fognini vs Dimitrov. The Italian is bound to be up for it and they are two of the best players you could ever watch if they are firing on all cylinders. I agree Fonseca could cut the Goblin in half, and I'm hoping he does...very dull game that Rublev.

[jimlosaltos]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/australian-open-draw-preview?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7z zc

Bold picks by Hugh: "Early Upsets: Fonseca def. Rublev; Moutet def. Popyrin; Nakashima def. Shelton; Monfils def GMP; Arnaldi def. Musetti — the most interesting section in terms of quality round one matches against seeds.

Also liked this: "Getting ahead of myself: GMP against Fritz in the third round would be an interesting watch, given that Fritz’s break percentage isn’t all that hot for a top-four seed (he’s around 20%, whereas Sinner, Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Djokovic are in the ~28-30% range).

[stroke]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/australian-open-draw-preview?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc

[jimlosaltos]

The 1st round match of the day to me Rublev vs Fonseca. Rublev is the betting favorite, but this one has upset written all over it.

Oh absolutely. Forehands at the ready. Aim. Fire.

But also tasty for first rounders IMHO are: defending champion Aryna Sabalenka meeting ex USO champ Sloane Stephens, Stephanos Tsitsipas vs Alex Michelson, and Gio the Serve Monster vs La Monf. How old is Gael now anyway? He seemed to have a resurgence in the tune ups.

[stroke]

The 1st round match of the day to me Rublev vs Fonseca. Rublev is the betting favorite, but this one has upset written all over it.

[jimlosaltos]

Women's singles odds per CBS Sports:
2025 Women's Australian Open odds, top contenders

Note: 17 yo Mirra Andreeva at 5th and Osaka at 7th seem based on hope and celebrity. Iga below Coco is presumably predicated on their most recent match, ignoring their 11-2 H2H in the Pole's favor.

See full Australian Open 2025 women's picks, predictions and best bets here.

Aryna Sabalenka +220
Coco Gauff +400
Iga Swiatek +600
Elena Rybakina +1000
Qinwen Zheng +1500
Mirra Andreeva +2000
Karolina Muchova +2000
Naomi Osaka +2200
Jasmine Paolini +3000
Jessica Pegula +3000
Barbora Krejcikova +3500
Emma Navarro +4000
Emma Raducanu +5000
Donna Vekic +5000
Danielle Collins +6000
Ons Jabeur +6000
Jelena Ostapenko +6000
Marta Kostyuk +6500
Paula Badosa +7000
Marketa Vondrousova +7000
Maria Sakkari +7000
Madison Keys +7000
Linda Noskova +7000

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[jimlosaltos]

Record prize money but still well below US Open.

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* Doubles round 32 obscured by ad.

Stroke's mens odds image. The oddsmakers list varies a good deal from the ATP rankings this time around. Holger Rune, for example, is down to 13 in the rankings but is up to 8th in the odds. Similarly for Tsitsipas -- but that can be justified by his good runs at the event in the past.

Arthur Fils, who is 20 in the world is a nice player, but odds makers putting him ahead of Rublev, local De Minaur and Shelton doesn't look right to me.

filedata/fetch?id=106309&d=1736447308&type=thumb

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