Roland Garros aka The French Open

[stotty]

Hard to disagree with any of those comments. The standard of the final was staggeringly high and as good as anything I've ever seen— and I’ve seen a lot.

[jimlosaltos]

Several players, each commenting briefly on the Sinner-Alcaraz RG final. Only 3:11 min YT
That so many players want to play those two is clear. They're the measuring stick now.
Bublik struck me as the most articulate. Interesting to see him with his showman's mask off.

[don_budge]

Statistics vs. Reality...

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

"What is power", I ask the student. It's a rhetorical question. A question asked primarily to make a point or create a dramatic effect rather than to elicit an answer. Control is power. The three elements of control are speed, placement and spin. Since tennis is such a situational challenge it is the combination or blending of the three elements that express the true measure of power. If you control the ball, then you can control your opponent. If you can control your opponent, then you control the match. Tennis metaphors life...always. Control being an essential element in the living of one's life. Think of relationships as an example. The constant jockeying for control.

Statistics have their place, but it certainly isn't in tennis. Attempting to quantify a qualitative experience is bound to be ineffective. That being said...the herd likes statistics. MPH. RPM. %%%%% ad infinitum. That's fine. Impressive MPH...means nothing in terms of control without spin and placement. In golf it is said that the woods are full of long drivers of the golf ball. Modern tennis has certainly become a game of speed. An over emphasis of speed compared to the original game. The true game of tennis. It actually changed the paradigm of tennis. Perhaps it would be best to rename the game. Bang Ball. Something moronic and simple. Or return the game to original meaning. Original definition. Make Tennis Great Again!!!

[jimlosaltos]

Excellent post and right on target to what is being discussed in the the Fade vs Draw article.
In the past (and of course it still happens) coaches will try to correct a player from hitting Diagonal Fade TopSpin on their Drives ( ex...happened to Raducanu and Medvedev)
even when that shot is the Premier Shot in tennis... very much like the spike is to volleyball.

Thanks Posted that before I read the article ... which is great! Serendipity.

[airforce1]

Another: MLB measures "spin components", rather than just measuring RPMs and maybe saying X percent is sidespin. So, pitching coaches teach how to change finger pressure to increase the gyro spin component. You create Shohei Ohtani's almost unhittable "sweeper" {league batting average against it is a paltry .138.}

Pitching coaches used to tell players to "correct" their grip if they threw that pitch. Now everyone is copying him & other Japanese pitchers.

Compare that to the clock model in teaching tennis serves, i.e. hit from the 3 to the 8.

#

Excellent post and right on target to what is being discussed in the the Fade vs Draw article.
In the past (and of course it still happens) coaches will try to correct a player from hitting Diagonal Fade TopSpin on their Drives ( ex...happened to Raducanu and Medvedev)
even when that shot is the Premier Shot in tennis... very much like the spike is to volleyball.

[stroke]

Always liked the phrase "stealing time from the opponent". Fed/ Sinner taking the ball early and refusing to surrender the baseline is one way they excel.

In my earlier post from Andrea Petkovic she uses that phrase for Coco in a manner I hadn't seen. Petko said Coco is so fast to recognize short balls -- and get there -- that it steals time from her opponents, who can't recover adequately.

Andre Agassi also "stole time" from opponents with his reflexes and court position.

Andre was the first to me, and the first player that truly presented nowhere to go, forehand and backhand both great. Now of course a lot of players like this.

[jimlosaltos]

Rodger the gold standard. To me, Sinner most mirrors his genius in the respect of taking the ball on early. In fact, his bh is much more of a weapon than Rodger's in this respect. He clearly does not have the hand skills or slice bh of Roger.

Always liked the phrase "stealing time from the opponent". Fed/ Sinner taking the ball early and refusing to surrender the baseline is one way they excel.

In my earlier post from Andrea Petkovic she uses that phrase for Coco in a manner I hadn't seen. Petko said Coco is so fast to recognize short balls -- and get there -- that it steals time from her opponents, who can't recover adequately.

Andre Agassi also "stole time" from opponents with his reflexes and court position.

[jimlosaltos]

I’m not about to rewatch the recent final just to confirm the exact court positioning (I’m sure the stats are out there), but it looked like both players were pressing up on the baseline quite a bit. When that happens—especially when they’re tight to or even inside the baseline—ball speed really starts to matter. The closer you are, the less time your opponent has to react, so those numbers become far more impactful than when players are trading from deeper behind the baseline, like Zverev and Musetti.

Jim, thanks for your reply. Interesting what you said about measuring a player's speed versus judging a player by what ‘looks’ quick to the eye. Tennis movement is unusually specific in my view, but I generally judge tennis speed in three areas: short distance (bursts), medium distance, and the expanse. Player’s who are quick over the expanse tend to grab all the headlines; think Carlos and Monfils. I’d take Novak and Borg over the medium distances. Believe or not I would take McEnroe over short distances—he’s a distant memory to most of us now but his speed around the net was quite exceptional; he was quick in his head. Overall I would take Roger. He moved so beautifully in all three departments.

Yes, I think people forget just how well Peak Fed moved. As Andy Roddick said, "Federer was both the best offensive and the best defensive player." I'm not sure when anyone else could have claimed that distinction. And La Monf! Good addition. After an exhibition in San Jose ( the pictures of Sampras' serve came from that} Pete said he hadn't played anyone faster than Monfils. { roughly }. Pete hit some good drop volleys and Monfis just flew to them. Pete bent over and grabbed the hem of his shorts. Monfils responded by doing push ups on court. Priceless.

And, yes, so much goes into movement. Nadal, coaching Fed [and there's an image} who was struggling against Kyrgios at the Laver Cup Chicago said "Yes, he sees the ball so well." Is that speed? I believe it's part of it. The NFL now tests draft prospects for quickness in pattern recognition. The 49ers QB taken as the last player in the draft because of his mediocre measurements, had one of the highest scores yet on that visual recognition test. Just signed a new ~$51 Million contract. Despite small hands and weak arm.

At the risk of too much baseball, I saw a Statcast measurement of the time it took an outfielder from the moment a line drive was hit toward him from ~250 feet away to taking his first step on the way to making a great catch at .... something under a half second to three digits, maybe?

[stroke]

I’m not about to rewatch the recent final just to confirm the exact court positioning (I’m sure the stats are out there), but it looked like both players were pressing up on the baseline quite a bit. When that happens—especially when they’re tight to or even inside the baseline—ball speed really starts to matter. The closer you are, the less time your opponent has to react, so those numbers become far more impactful than when players are trading from deeper behind the baseline, like Zverev and Musetti.

Jim, thanks for your reply. Interesting what you said about measuring a player's speed versus judging a player by what ‘looks’ quick to the eye. Tennis movement is unusually specific in my view, but I generally judge tennis speed in three areas: short distance (bursts), medium distance, and the expanse. Player’s who are quick over the expanse tend to grab all the headlines; think Carlos and Monfils. I’d take Novak and Borg over the medium distances. Believe or not I would take McEnroe over short distances—he’s a distant memory to most of us now but his speed around the net was quite exceptional; he was quick in his head. Overall I would take Roger. He moved so beautifully in all three departments.

Rodger the gold standard. To me, Sinner most mirrors his genius in the respect of taking the ball on early. In fact, his bh is much more of a weapon than Rodger's in this respect. He clearly does not have the hand skills or slice bh of Roger.

[stotty]

I certainly agree. The "shot quality" measurements often supplied is the best indicator of the players forehand, bh, serve, and serve return. For instance, Sabalenka would have probably been abysmal in all 4 categories in the FO Final

I’m not about to rewatch the recent final just to confirm the exact court positioning (I’m sure the stats are out there), but it looked like both players were pressing up on the baseline quite a bit. When that happens—especially when they’re tight to or even inside the baseline—ball speed really starts to matter. The closer you are, the less time your opponent has to react, so those numbers become far more impactful than when players are trading from deeper behind the baseline, like Zverev and Musetti.

Jim, thanks for your reply. Interesting what you said about measuring a player's speed versus judging a player by what ‘looks’ quick to the eye. Tennis movement is unusually specific in my view, but I generally judge tennis speed in three areas: short distance (bursts), medium distance, and the expanse. Player’s who are quick over the expanse tend to grab all the headlines; think Carlos and Monfils. I’d take Novak and Borg over the medium distances. Believe or not I would take McEnroe over short distances—he’s a distant memory to most of us now but his speed around the net was quite exceptional; he was quick in his head. Overall I would take Roger. He moved so beautifully in all three departments.

[jimlosaltos]

The trouble I have with stats is they often miss part of the story.

Take this example:

One player hits a ball at 80 mph but does so 10 feet behind the baseline, aiming at an opponent 2 feet behind the opposite baseline.
Another player hits at 75 mph, but from just 2 feet behind the baseline, to the same target.

You might assume the 80 mph shot is “harder,” but it will actually take longer to reach the opponent than the player hitting at 75mph.

So despite being slower, the 75 mph shot gets there quicker—meaning it's more pressuring and arguably more effective. Speed alone doesn't tell the full story—court position matters.

Sorry this answer is so long. I don't have time to cut it down

Yup. You're right. A rough analogy is that in baseball, they measure that and give an "effective velocity", i.e. Aroldis Chapman, for some time the top relief picture in MLB, had the highest effective velocity because he extended so far toward the plate to release the ball that his 100 MPH fastball cut the time the batter had to react by the equivalent of an extra 5+ MPH .

Hawkeye provides this data, the ATP simply chooses not to share it. Several years back, we got the time a returner had to react to serves by Isner (a little over .520 seconds I think) or Fed (maybe 0.720 sec?). Then the ATP stopped it. I believe the ATP thinks it needs to dumb down tennis coverage to appeal to broader audiences { also the excuse for McEnroe's announcing}.

Similarly, MLB's Statcast { a vastly improved version of Hawkeye that is in every stadium vs on some courts} gives peak speed run by any player, as well as averages etc. Ditto NFL football where we know who are the fastest players because they publish the peak speeds -- the exclusive 20 MPH club for guys like Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and Christian McCaffrey hit 21 MPH, generally on long TD runs or punt returns. NFL also gives how long it takes to get to that peak speed. A guy on Kansas City Chiefs was the fastest to peak of anyone; don't recall his name from several years ago. On the ATP we think Alcaraz is faster than Musetti, but who knows?

So, no. One stat doesn't tell everything. It tells something. Up to us to interpret it. Some numbers provide insights people didn't have from simply watching.

An example: Statcast modeled the ideal swing to hit a home run, completely changing how batters are trained { around 30 deg elevation, exit velocity over 100 mph).

Another: MLB measures "spin components", rather than just measuring RPMs and maybe saying X percent is sidespin. So, pitching coaches teach how to change finger pressure to increase the gyro spin component. You create Shohei Ohtani's almost unhittable "sweeper" {league batting average against it is a paltry .138.}

Pitching coaches used to tell players to "correct" their grip if they threw that pitch. Now everyone is copying him & other Japanese pitchers.

Compare that to the clock model in teaching tennis serves, i.e. hit from the 3 to the 8.

#

[stroke]

The trouble I have with stats is they often miss part of the story.

Take this example:

One player hits a ball at 80 mph but does so 10 feet behind the baseline, aiming at an opponent 2 feet behind the opposite baseline.
Another player hits at 75 mph, but from just 2 feet behind the baseline, to the same target.

You might assume the 80 mph shot is “harder,” but it will actually take longer to reach the opponent than the player hitting at 75mph.

So despite being slower, the 75 mph shot gets there quicker—meaning it's more pressuring and arguably more effective. Speed alone doesn't tell the full story—court position matters.

I certainly agree. The "shot quality" measurements often supplied is the best indicator of the players forehand, bh, serve, and serve return. For instance, Sabalenka would have probably been abysmal in all 4 categories in the FO Final

[stotty]

I miss having John ask to round up stats from Roland Garros, since it offers a rare opportunity to get both tours.

Here's a palimsest, cherry picked from this year, without spending hours going through the graphical presentation of the "winner" shot data. There are significant caveats. The FFT is cavalier with this data. Is it for the event? For the match? Is slice mixed in with topspin? Probably. Regardless, some perspective.

What stands out is that Zverev is a unicorn.

Average speeds
Sinner Alcaraz Zverev
Forehand 76 76 80
Backhand 71 68 76
First Serve 119 118 125


Average Forehand Speed

Zverev 80 mph
Fonseca 76 mph
Draper 76 mph
Rybakina 75 mph
Swiatek 75 mph
Sabalenka 73 mph
Anisimova 73 mph
Sinner 76 mph
Alcaraz 76 mph
Musetti 75 mph
Djokovic 75 mph
Coco 72 mph
Rune 72 mph
Andreeva 67 mph

The trouble I have with stats is they often miss part of the story.

Take this example:

One player hits a ball at 80 mph but does so 10 feet behind the baseline, aiming at an opponent 2 feet behind the opposite baseline.
Another player hits at 75 mph, but from just 2 feet behind the baseline, to the same target.

You might assume the 80 mph shot is “harder,” but it will actually take longer to reach the opponent than the player hitting at 75mph.

So despite being slower, the 75 mph shot gets there quicker—meaning it's more pressuring and arguably more effective. Speed alone doesn't tell the full story—court position matters.

[jimlosaltos]

Another Substack devoted to tennis is "Finite Jest" by ex player Andrea Petkovic (Yes, the dancing Petko. It's free.

andreapetkovic.substack.com

Here's her take on Coco of Aryna. Two images

filedata/fetch?id=107564&d=1749680027&type=thumb

filedata/fetch?id=107563&d=1749679940&type=thumb

#

[jimlosaltos]

pretty much inline with historical norm by the look of it.

Yup. Since TV promotes outliers, it always seems slightly surprising at first how tightly they are clustered.

With the exception of Zverev among the top players.

It seems as if more and more players can hit 100 MPH forehands, yet the averages aren't moving much. Virtually everyone on my somewhat arbitrary list can hit 100 MPH with the possible exception of Andreeva, who is 18 yo and likely to get there since she's already hit 126 MPH on he serve.