Nitto ATP Finals aka Turin

[stotty]

Carlos leads 5-4 first set

First, someone keels over in the stands and now an MTO for Carlos. This game cannot quite get going despite some spectacular hitting here and there. I’m finding the match quite edgy.

[stotty]

It’s definitely an event that favours Sinner. You can’s imagine he loses much on an indoor hard court. I’m sure Jim has the stats on that one. The pace of the court and the pinpont accuracy (no sun, no wind, no damp ,no humidity) that indoor tennis provides will certainly favour Sinner. That said, Carlos’s first set against FAA was quite something, and if he can find that for a couple of hours later today he will have a great chance.

[stroke]

They are clearly the best 2 forehands in tennis. Not sure which one is better. Even the shot quality metrics switch around between those 2. Sinner clearly has the better backhand. The Sinner serve is better. Alcaraz obviously has the good hands advantage, and is the best mover in tennis, even though Sinner is also top tier.. Sinner is the favorite, with an implied probability of winning at 61%.

[stotty]

I think Carlos’s forehand is the most explosive, spectacular shot I’ve ever seen. When you watch him drive up into the shot in slow motion you realise is absolutely perfect…so cleanly executed.

It was only ever going to be a Sinner/Carlos final - it should be a great match.

[jimlosaltos]

Alex thinks he knows how to beat Sinner ...

ATP: "Alex de Minaur says he knows how to beat Jannik Sinner. It's just the execution that's the challenge. "I know how to beat him. It's just not that easy to do, right? You've got to hit the ball very hard, very flat, very deep and very close to the lines,” De Minaur said following his semi-final exit against the Italian at the Nitto ATP Finals on Saturday. “It is something that I try to do, but it's obviously not the easiest thing to do.

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/cRdeMqWQtVAyc9W37

[stroke]

Sinner looks to me like he is now hitting a level that young Federer could, just a level of play that other players simply cannot match.

[stotty]

Sinner has looked unbeatable so far.

He certainly has looked unbeatable so far. He is now pummelling Minaur in the second set after winning the first. And what a backhand down the line in that final game of the first set. He had little right to get to it let alone hit a screaming winner. He’s moving so well and literally blanketing the baseline. The problem with de Minaur is he just can’t serve well enough because of technical limitations; this is in stark contrast to Sinner who first serve percentage is so high of late.

[stroke]

Sinner has looked unbeatable so far.

[stotty]

I thought FAA was going to choke that second set but Zverez seemed to help him out a bit. I only caught the second set. It’s a tough watch watching the ATP Finals my end. It’s hard to convey just how woeful the commentary is that I have to put up with…zero knowledge, no insights, dull voices just filling up airtime. Having the volume turned off is the preferable option.

I’m not a big fan of Zverez but I do love watching him hit that backhand. It’s one of the standout shots on the tour.

[jimlosaltos]

Forum is being persnickety. Let's see if I can post this image here:

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[jimlosaltos]

On a day when ATP Chairman Andrea Gaudenzi presented Carlos Alcaraz with the PIF trophy as ATP year-end number one, Jannik Sinner played like one. Sinner didn't merely go undefeated in the round robin stage, he continued his streak from last year. By the numbers:

Sinner's Streak at ATP Tour Finals

• 8 Consecutive matches won in Turin across 2024-25
• 16 Consecutive sets won
• 29 Consecutive Indoor Hard Court matches won including other events (tying Roger Federer for 5th longest such streak (PMac's tops at 47 (1978-87)
• Zero breaks of his serve this year, and only two in 2024.
• Seven (7 of 7) break points defended in Turin this year, all vs Sasha Zverev. Includes coming back from 0-40 vs Zverev, saved two BPs in opening game vs Zverev with aces, saved another in their second game at 30-40. Sinner faced an identical 7 BPs in 2024's Turin, and was broken twice, once each by De Minaur and Medvedev. Zero in the final vs Fritz.

With only Zverev vs FAA left to be played, here are various set/match stats.
Only Jannik and Carlos won over half their games played with Sinner best at 65.79%. Every other player is in the 40s.



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[jimlosaltos]

With de Minaur's fate in Alcaraz's hands, his finace' Katie Boulter's response (at the bottom) amuses.

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[jimlosaltos]

de Minaur defuses Fritz 7-6(3) 6-3 leads H2H 6-5

It was one thing for Demon to beat Zverev and Mensik on the quite slow courts at the Laver Cup but taking out an very in-form Fritz this week on the supposedly quickish Turin courts is a bit of a surprise.

Haven't watched yet but he broke Fritz twice and won the tie so that was enough. ATP says Demon put on an impressive "attacking display".

IF Alcaraz beats Musetti, Demon is into the single elimination round. While Alcaraz doesn't need the win to qualify, I believe it would clinch the year end number one ranking so expect him to be motivated.

[stroke]

Sinner's forehand was a real problem out there. To me, the advantage he has on the forehand vs Zverev was the biggest difference.