Tsitsipas Serve: Critically Flawed or Critical Difference that Works?

[stroke]

Cross posting from ATP Tour Finals/ Turin 2023

New analysis by Craig O'Shannessy posted on the ATP site surprised me.
I know Stef Tsitsipas has a good serve, but per Craig he is the best of all 8 finalists in Turin at holding serve.
Cross posting this to older item on Tsitis' serve.

Craig: "Stefanos Tsitsipas is a holding serve machine. Tsitsipas has averaged being broken once out of every 8.4 of his service games in 2023, making him the leader of the pack chasing end-of-season glory in Turin. The other two players who elevated over the seven-game threshold were Novak Djokovic (7.9) and Jannik Sinner (7.6).

2023 Season: Average Service Games Per Break
1. Tsitsipas - 8.4
2. Djokovic - 7.9
3. Sinner - 7.6
4. Alcaraz - 6.6
5. Medvedev - 6.4
6. Rublev - 6.2
7. Zverev - 6.1
8. Rune - 5.7

If you postulate an average set score being 6-3, Tsitsipas will typically be broken just once in a straight-sets match. Holger Rune, on the other hand, is nudging closer to twice a match—especially if the score is tighter, such as 6-4, 6-4.

Not surprisingly, Tsitsipas leads the ATP Tour in percentage of service games won in 2023, at 88.72 per cent (826/931). Djokovic is in second place at 88.53 per cent (625/706), while Sinner sits in sixth place overall at 87.06 per cent (747/858).

I would have not guessed that. His technique to me is not easy on the eye, and his second serve used to be dicey under pressure to me, but he certainly seems to have gotten past that, if it ever was an issue. I have always thought his grip was too close to eastern, but the numbers tell the story. He is clearly good to go.

[jimlosaltos]

Cross posting from ATP Tour Finals/ Turin 2023

New analysis by Craig O'Shannessy posted on the ATP site surprised me.
I know Stef Tsitsipas has a good serve, but per Craig he is the best of all 8 finalists in Turin at holding serve.
Cross posting this to older item on Tsitis' serve.

Craig: "Stefanos Tsitsipas is a holding serve machine. Tsitsipas has averaged being broken once out of every 8.4 of his service games in 2023, making him the leader of the pack chasing end-of-season glory in Turin. The other two players who elevated over the seven-game threshold were Novak Djokovic (7.9) and Jannik Sinner (7.6).

2023 Season: Average Service Games Per Break
1. Tsitsipas - 8.4
2. Djokovic - 7.9
3. Sinner - 7.6
4. Alcaraz - 6.6
5. Medvedev - 6.4
6. Rublev - 6.2
7. Zverev - 6.1
8. Rune - 5.7

If you postulate an average set score being 6-3, Tsitsipas will typically be broken just once in a straight-sets match. Holger Rune, on the other hand, is nudging closer to twice a match—especially if the score is tighter, such as 6-4, 6-4.

Not surprisingly, Tsitsipas leads the ATP Tour in percentage of service games won in 2023, at 88.72 per cent (826/931). Djokovic is in second place at 88.53 per cent (625/706), while Sinner sits in sixth place overall at 87.06 per cent (747/858).

[jimlosaltos]

I wonder if he changes the tosses intentionally and what the variation in width is compared to other top players?

You'll find some answers in another thread I just created in your forum. Service toss clusters for the Big 3, and a unique to me at least ray-trace that shows for Djokovic serve directions for each hit point in a cluster. Lots to digest!

[jimlosaltos]

Is it possible the varianance in toss spread is because Tsitsipas's height of ball contact allows him to try and hit a straighter and flatter flight path serve in the corners? This camera angle (hard to find that angle footage in slo motion to capture both toss & player) shows him hitting a shallow, wide serve near the alleyin the deuce court and a shallow,wide serve near the alley in the ad court. The ball flights seems to have little side curve in the air and kind of flat. Both are hit from an extreme toss location. A flatter serve could explain the retro grip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFOOUDSTt6k

Thanks for sharing the great video. Tsitsipas was, what, 19 yo there? Love the low angle, really get a feel for the velocity and hop off the court that can seem routine on TV.

[jimlosaltos]

Let me try again to post this table and try for a larger size by converting the graphic to a .jpg.

I think we have it!

P.S. For anyone that might care, the forum software can load .PNGs, but resizes them to thumbnails that can't be enlarged. Converting to . jpg's seems to do the job.

Again, this is the ATP sites service ranking, sorted on the "% Service Games Won" stat, with my annotations for ST's rank in each.

TsitsiServeRank.jpg

[jimlosaltos]

I think this is one of those just because you can doesn't mean you should situations.

If he has all the power/spin/location of an elite server, why is he languishing in 37th place in aces per game?

Is it because the serve is readable, or his patterns are predictable? How much of his w% is due to the game he is backing up the serve with?

Also W/R/T the toss inconsistency causing double faults, it's not the toss that causes it, the toss inconsistency is a symptom of nerves and the nerves are what causes the double faults. If a player with good feel was calm and relaxed and someone told him to toss the ball wherever and hit it in with spin he certainly could.

Gulbis can hit all 4 corners at 130mph with a toss 2' behind his head, but if I am playing a match and the other guy catches his toss because it goes 2' behind his head I take a big step in because I know he is nervous.

J

Don't claim to know the answers, but I'd note Tsitsipas hits heavy, kick frequently and ranks 5th on ATP in service games won. I think he'd prefer that stat over aces. But one can argue if he hit more aces he might win even more games! But this is definitely a tactical choice by Tsitsipas and his father
Apostolos Tsitsipas.

[doctorhl]

I'd bet money Tsitsipas's toss spread is deliberate and, like his retro grips, something his father developed to help his aggressive, offensive game. Never heard anyone ask, though.

Service toss clusters on first serve for both Fed and Novak are (from memory) about 7.9 inches. Only a 43 inch difference from Stephanos !

Is it possible the varianance in toss spread is because Tsitsipas's height of ball contact allows him to try and hit a straighter and flatter flight path serve in the corners? This camera angle (hard to find that angle footage in slo motion to capture both toss & player) shows him hitting a shallow, wide serve near the alleyin the deuce court and a shallow,wide serve near the alley in the ad court. The ball flights seems to have little side curve in the air and kind of flat. Both are hit from an extreme toss location. A flatter serve could explain the retro grip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFOOUDSTt6k

[J011yroger]

I think this is one of those just because you can doesn't mean you should situations.

If he has all the power/spin/location of an elite server, why is he languishing in 37th place in aces per game?

Is it because the serve is readable, or his patterns are predictable? How much of his w% is due to the game he is backing up the serve with?

Also W/R/T the toss inconsistency causing double faults, it's not the toss that causes it, the toss inconsistency is a symptom of nerves and the nerves are what causes the double faults. If a player with good feel was calm and relaxed and someone told him to toss the ball wherever and hit it in with spin he certainly could.

Gulbis can hit all 4 corners at 130mph with a toss 2' behind his head, but if I am playing a match and the other guy catches his toss because it goes 2' behind his head I take a big step in because I know he is nervous.

J

[John Yandell]

Gonna look thru our footage and see

[don_budge]

I wonder if he changes the tosses intentionally and what the variation in width is compared to other top players?

johnyandell...is there any archive of the Stefanos Tstisipas serve on the site?

[jimlosaltos]

I wonder if he changes the tosses intentionally and what the variation in width is compared to other top players?

I'd bet money Tsitsipas's toss spread is deliberate and, like his retro grips, something his father developed to help his aggressive, offensive game. Never heard anyone ask, though.

Service toss clusters on first serve for both Fed and Novak are (from memory) about 7.9 inches. Only a 43 inch difference from Stephanos !

[John Yandell]

I wonder if he changes the tosses intentionally and what the variation in width is compared to other top players?

[klacr]

Great find Jim. I really don't know what to make of it other than even if you know where the serve is going, if hit hard enough and located in the right spot still can be tough to handle.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA, PTR
Delray Beach
SETS Consulting

[jimlosaltos]

I guess his toss locations is not something anyone would want to mimic, kind of like the Medvedev forehand, but obviously, as the stats you present point out, it works for him. And that forehand leaning service grip is also not textbook. He tends to fall to left, which at times gets him in trouble when his opponent makes a solid return to his forehand. He has seemed to have gotten past his double fault issues he had at pressure times in matches.

Hard to argue with results. Like Medvedev, whom you cite, I enjoy watching players that break out of the cookie-cutter mode and try different things.

You mentioned his service grip. I believe his forehand grip is also old-school and that helps him, much like Fed's, play balls on the short hop and fits his offensive game.

Let's see if I can find this. And upload it <g>. Rally hit points from his win over Rafa. Set 3 only. ESPN.

[stroke]

I guess his toss locations is not something anyone would want to mimic, kind of like the Medvedev forehand, but obviously, as the stats you present point out, it works for him. And that forehand leaning service grip is also not textbook. He tends to fall to left, which at times gets him in trouble when his opponent makes a solid return to his forehand. He has seemed to have gotten past his double fault issues he had at pressure times in matches.