Has Zverev "Fixed" His Second Serve?

[don_budge]

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are the only two "point guards" left in the draw. Modern tennis, while not necessarily being a better product, is trending towards the taller player. There is one "point guard" left in either half of the draw.

Still...that one remains.

[jimlosaltos]

And then there was one.

Can we call Medvedev a point-forward? He's a guard in spirit. An honorary member <g>

[don_budge]

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are the only two "point guards" left in the draw. Modern tennis, while not necessarily being a better product, is trending towards the taller player. There is one "point guard" left in either half of the draw.

And then there was one.

[jimlosaltos]

Per IBM stats on US Open site today, pre match:

• Zverev's second serve win percentage is 60%, versus 44% for Harris"

[arturohernandez]

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are the only two "point guards" left in the draw. Modern tennis, while not necessarily being a better product, is trending towards the taller player. There is one "point guard" left in either half of the draw.

I always loved point guards. My favorite was Tim Hardaway. The UTEP, two-step.

A great player until his knee gave out.

A very interesting week ahead awaits us...

[don_budge]

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are the only two "point guards" left in the draw. Modern tennis, while not necessarily being a better product, is trending towards the taller player. There is one "point guard" left in either half of the draw.

[arturohernandez]

Two things: Analytics and rule changes.

The geeks did some simple math and said "You score more points per shot with 3s than with 2s", so now nobody but Kawhi shoots twos.

Second, you can't grab the guards' jerseys anymore, so they can drive by or if you back off, step back.

There is a seen in the Netflix show Away where the American captain is talking to a Russian Cosmonaut on the mission. The Russian comments that he loves baseball. The American is surprised. "Really, you like baseball." Then the Cosmonaut says that he loved baseball as a game. But then Americans ruined it by making everything a statistic. He ends by just saying "Why can't you just enjoy the game for what it is." Well analytics will do that.

It all becomes about winning and metrics. Hence, the beauty of the center and the inside power game is gone. Why make 45% of 2 pointers when you can make 33% of three pointers?

100 shots = 45% two pointers = 45 shots made = 90 points
100 shots = 33% three pointers = 33 shots made = 99 points

The simple math that killed the power game in basketball.

I suppose that some changes have made tennis more of a tall man's game and basketball less so.

[jimlosaltos]

Whatever happened to centers or power forwards. Everyone just wants to shoot three pointers.

A friend of mine also pulled something out of a magazine that was stating that athletes keep getting taller. My friend was thinking of quarterbacks in American football. He thought tennis players will just keep getting taller.

Meanwhile, world football or futbol is not showing an increase in height. There are some tall players. But overall soccer requires being able to move and change directions near the ground.

I suspect that this aspect of tennis is still true. There is the advantage of height. But being able to move well for five sets across seven matches and then sustaining that for several years has to be very difficult.

I remember watching David Ferrer, maul John Isner at the Paris indoors. He was just attacking him and Isner managed to squeak out a set before collapsing in the third.

Both are exceptions at the extreme but you get my drift. If a player has to run for hours on end, it is better to have a somewhat smaller frame that is lower to the ground to do so.

Of course, in this equation, small is like Wawrinka or Federer.

The 6'1" player won last years US Open against Zverev. It was a tough match but again we could say it was mental on Zverev's part. But it is not exactly like Thiem was playing a stellar match. He was just able to play for five sets and eventually prevail.

All things being equal as they often will be in major finals, very small things will make a difference. 3 or 4 inches may seem like very little but who knows.

As I said earlier, either way it will be interesting...

Two things: Analytics and rule changes.

The geeks did some simple math and said "You score more points per shot with 3s than with 2s", so now nobody but Kawhi shoots twos.

Second, you can't grab the guards' jerseys anymore, so they can drive by or if you back off, step back.

[arturohernandez]

I remember Jack Kramer circa 1980 saying that tennis would be taken over by athletes like Michael Jordan ( ~6 ft 6 in).

Didn't happen then. Nor in the 90s. Nor in the Aughts.

Still waiting ....

Meanwhile, the NBA is getting shorter.

Whatever happened to centers or power forwards. Everyone just wants to shoot three pointers.

A friend of mine also pulled something out of a magazine that was stating that athletes keep getting taller. My friend was thinking of quarterbacks in American football. He thought tennis players will just keep getting taller.

Meanwhile, world football or futbol is not showing an increase in height. There are some tall players. But overall soccer requires being able to move and change directions near the ground.

I suspect that this aspect of tennis is still true. There is the advantage of height. But being able to move well for five sets across seven matches and then sustaining that for several years has to be very difficult.

I remember watching David Ferrer, maul John Isner at the Paris indoors. He was just attacking him and Isner managed to squeak out a set before collapsing in the third.

Both are exceptions at the extreme but you get my drift. If a player has to run for hours on end, it is better to have a somewhat smaller frame that is lower to the ground to do so.

Of course, in this equation, small is like Wawrinka or Federer.

The 6'1" player won last years US Open against Zverev. It was a tough match but again we could say it was mental on Zverev's part. But it is not exactly like Thiem was playing a stellar match. He was just able to play for five sets and eventually prevail.

All things being equal as they often will be in major finals, very small things will make a difference. 3 or 4 inches may seem like very little but who knows.

As I said earlier, either way it will be interesting...

[jimlosaltos]

I remember Jack Kramer circa 1980 saying that tennis would be taken over by athletes like Michael Jordan ( ~6 ft 6 in).

Didn't happen then. Nor in the 90s. Nor in the Aughts.

Still waiting ....

Meanwhile, the NBA is getting shorter.

[stotty]

I still think that in tennis being past 6'4" becomes an issue because of all the weight that has to move around. So far we only have Del Potro and Cilic as the exceptions on the tall side. On the short side, we have no exceptions. The shortest male has been Wawrinka at 6' tall.

Very dangerous to have fixed ideas in coaching. Statistically, there are probably far fewer over 6'4'' to those under 6'4'' so you would expect less slam winners over 6'4''. Zverez moves well and is not in the least bit handicapped by his height. The reason Zverev is not a slam winner already is due to his unstable second serve and his inability to close out. I am expecting him to improve in both departments, but improvement in the former will definitely have a positive effect on the latter.

To me, in today's game, being 6'6'' is an asset. Extreme height is a relatively new phenomenon so let's see what happens over the next decade.

[stroke]

Yes, the return of serve is an interesting stat to consider. If I am not wrong, it is the one thing Sampras worked on a lot. He basically was trying to get one break every set. Probably similar to Federer's mind set.

Zverev looks great at this point. The only question is whether he will win multiple majors. Remember there was another tall guy we thought would win multiple majors after he beat Federer in the final of the 2009 US Open.

Then everything changed. I still think that in tennis being past 6'4" becomes an issue because of all the weight that has to move around. So far we only have Del Potro and Cilic as the exceptions on the tall side. On the short side, we have no exceptions. The shortest male has been Wawrinka at 6' tall.

Statistics are not everything and just because the vast majority of major winners are just over 6' doesn't mean it will stay that way.

But it's hard to ignore statistics and the bet is on Tsitsipas or someone "shorter" than him to emerge from the pack as the next multiple major winner.

Should be interesting...

Zverev's height is not an issue at all to me. He is clearly a very short 6'6" to me. Standing next to Querry, who is probably a legitimate 6'6", Zverev is not as tall. He is probably about 6'5" and that is a very good height to play tennis at the highest level.

[arturohernandez]

Not at all. Zverev is higher ranked as a returner than a server. How many big servers are there whose return is a glaring weakness? I'd list Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Kyrgios not just the giants, Isner, Opelka, Raonic. Zverev ranks 9th on return, 21st on serve. (Now, we can argue about the ATP's composite stats weighting, but it's something).
https://www.atptour.com/en/stats/lea...ormerNo1=false

Zverev's liabilities are his second serve, consistency on his forehand, and arguably his court positioning. Hard to understand why a 6 ft 6 / 7 in guy wants to run around so far behind the baseline, but then he has something of Andy Murray in him.

But Zverev has many weapons.

Yes, the return of serve is an interesting stat to consider. If I am not wrong, it is the one thing Sampras worked on a lot. He basically was trying to get one break every set. Probably similar to Federer's mind set.

Zverev looks great at this point. The only question is whether he will win multiple majors. Remember there was another tall guy we thought would win multiple majors after he beat Federer in the final of the 2009 US Open.

Then everything changed. I still think that in tennis being past 6'4" becomes an issue because of all the weight that has to move around. So far we only have Del Potro and Cilic as the exceptions on the tall side. On the short side, we have no exceptions. The shortest male has been Wawrinka at 6' tall.

Statistics are not everything and just because the vast majority of major winners are just over 6' doesn't mean it will stay that way.

But it's hard to ignore statistics and the bet is on Tsitsipas or someone "shorter" than him to emerge from the pack as the next multiple major winner.

Should be interesting...

[jimlosaltos]

So is he the next most one dimensional major winner?

Not at all. Zverev is higher ranked as a returner than a server. How many big servers are there whose return is a glaring weakness? I'd list Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Kyrgios not just the giants, Isner, Opelka, Raonic. Zverev ranks 9th on return, 21st on serve. (Now, we can argue about the ATP's composite stats weighting, but it's something).
https://www.atptour.com/en/stats/lea...ormerNo1=false

Zverev's liabilities are his second serve, consistency on his forehand, and arguably his court positioning. Hard to understand why a 6 ft 6 / 7 in guy wants to run around so far behind the baseline, but then he has something of Andy Murray in him.

But Zverev has many weapons.

[stroke]

So is he the next most one dimensional major winner?

I suppose. But to me that is a good problem to have, a major winner. He hits the most oppressive groundstrokes totality wise, forehand and backhand, on the tour. His 1st serve is top notch. As Stotty said, and I agree, it is all there except possibly 2nd serve hiccups. If that is off the table, I am seeing a guy that is going to win several majors.