Since we're doing projections, here's one that quite different from the punters'.
ELO projections for 2024 from Jeff Stockman at Tennis Abstract.
For anyone that is not familiar, Elo is the math model used to rank chess players, but can be applied anywhere. Ranking is doing a bit like tennis rankings in the old days, you ranked on the quality of your opponent. i.e. Beating Djokovic is worth more than beating a qualifier, etc.
In fairness, Jeff admits the range of outcomes in the projections are large. For Alcaraz, as an example, at 95% prediction interval, the top is world number one while the bottom is barely in the top 10.
filedata/fetch?id=103112&d=1704826995&type=thumb
Leave a comment: