Italian Open, ATP 1000

[jimlosaltos]

Match of the day, Zverev vs Taylor. Zverev favorite with an implied winning percentage at 64%. Taylor seems like a very good value bet here. Taylor has a better forehand, Zverev has a slightly better backhand. Serves about even, though I do prefer Taylor's 2nd serve.

Not your grandpa's clay match -- in fact whole tournament hasn't seemed to me as if it was on clay. Bodo, the venerable tennis columnist had a piece about a month ago on how after years of courts being slowed, players have started to just ignore that hit away regardless. Might be something to that.

Here, quarters with two of the best servers in tennis {Zverev second best behind only Hubi per ATP, Fritz ranked 6th}. Also, two good returners, although Frtiz has a statistical edge, ranked 19 vs Zverev's 32.

[jimlosaltos]

I've noted here for some time how Medvedev's first service has regressed since his peak. Now we have an explanation from the horses mouth:

Medvedev, asked about his deteriorated serve: "There is a reason why I practice it less right now, which is my body basically. There have been times that I was able to do everything except the serve on practice court. I was kind of only serving in the matches. It's a bit tougher"

[jimlosaltos]

Sabalenka put on a serving clinic in beating Ostapenko on quarters, not facing a single break point. Yip this critics ! <g>

[jimlosaltos]

The doubles team we didn't know we wanted -- or that it was possible - Alexander Bublik and Ben Shelton -- are through to the semifinals.

I wish I was in the stands there to experience the energy those two must bring to their games. Two huge hitters, Bublik almost a "free style player", apt to hit any shot any time, and Ben a guy that's seemingly never found a spot on the court he can't hit a winner from. Running out the player entrance? Go for a forehand on the sideline? Why not? Looks doable.

[stroke]

Zverev wins 1st set 6-4. Zverev hit 79% of first serves, 41% were unretured, winning 81% of those points. Clearly the difference in the set. Fritz competing well. Will be interesting.

[stroke]

Zverev wins in 2. He was too good. Ferocious ball striking from both. Zverev played as well as I have seen him play.

[jimlosaltos]

Zverev wins in 2. He was too good. Ferocious ball striking from both. Zverev played as well as I have seen him play.

Zverev must have been scared to death after his fall early in the first set. He couldn't have helped thinking "here we go again".

I remember watching him play Rafa in the Roland Garros semifinal and a chunk of clay gave out under his foot, tearing his ankle up. Lost a year to that.

He did well to get his concentration back.

P.S. Anyone that tells me clay is easier on players, gets an evil eye.

[stotty]

Not your grandpa's clay match -- in fact whole tournament hasn't seemed to me as if it was on clay. Bodo, the venerable tennis columnist had a piece about a month ago on how after years of courts being slowed, players have started to just ignore that hit away regardless. Might be something to that.

The ball is travelling so quick through the air at times as to make the speed of surface quite irrelevant. Some of the hitting on clay courts this season has made it not seem like clay at all. I was watching an old clip of Borg and Vilas the other day in one of their RG finals. Basically, you could go out of the room and make a cup of tea and return to find the rally hadn't finished. Here is an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZZMuXBr_Hk

I still think Borg is one of the best movers the game has ever had. Beautiful footwork...not that dissimilar to Steffi Graf who was also right up there with regards to speed and footwork.

[jimlosaltos]

Huge win for Tommy Paul over Hubi 7-5, 3-6, 6-3, amazingly featuring 13 breaks of serve - amazing with Hubi the statistically best serve in tennis.
Paul upset Medy earlier now Hubi for his first, consecutive wins over top 10 opponents.

Interesting thoughts from Paul on tactics:

The court position is a big thing,” said Paul. “I can play aggressive from the back of the court. I think that’s kind of what [Stine] wants me to do. Sometimes when I want to play aggressive, I get ahead of myself and get too close to the baseline.

“The last match I played I was on offence a lot, so I guess I kind of came out thinking it was going to be the same. Obviously with Hubi, he can crush the ball, so I had to give a little bit of ground there in the end.”

[jimlosaltos]

One reason there were four Americans in the quarters and three in the semis (counting men and women), is that all are big hitters and none seems -- to me anyway -- to be making much of a concession to the slow, Rome clay courts. And it's working. Add to that Sabalenka on the WTA side, whose self-described tactics are: "I hit the ball as hard as I can and hope enough go in." She's exaggerating. But not that much.

This might be a trend in how tennis is being played on slow courts, or just period. Few of the rallies I've watched from Rome resembled clay court play of even a few years ago. Players seem to be ignoring the surface and going big regardless.

I dug out an article by Peter Bodo, an ?minence grise of tennis journalism, from a couple of months ago on how after years of courts being slowed, players have started to just ignore that hit away regardless. Might be something to that.

Bodo: "That message is this: More than ever before, players on both tours are exploring the benefits of playing explosive, high-risk tennis, from relentlessly fine-tuning already massive serves to, perhaps even more importantly, creeping very close to the edge of recklessness at any opportunity in search of point-ending winners.

The trend is hiding in plain sight, evident in the applied power of a Jannik Sinner (finally, a tool to counteract the impregnable defense of Novak Djokovic!), the serving exhibitions put on by Ben Shelton, the let-it-all-hang out creativity of Carlos Alcaraz (whatever happened to that Spanish infatuation with clay-court tennis?). Also in progress: rekindled interest in the serve-and-volley tactic among younger players including that formidable prospect from the U.S., 6'8" 20-year old Martin Damm. If you haven’t heard of him yet, you will—soon.

But this new emphasis on bold tennis—the words “first-strike tennis” are relatively new in the vocabulary—is even more pronounced on the WTA Tour, which in the not too distant past was a happy hunting ground for patient, consistent baseliners. There have alway been exceptions, of course. But the mindset has been flipped like a mattress with deep bodily impressions on one side. The methodical, precise artisans are now in a minority."

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/1NxwaeJMvUADGSHx7

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/LMwpgos4FRqzNdkN7

[stroke]

Another super hard hitting match, not much between them at all, well done by Jarry to win 7-5 in the 3rd. Jarry has a Hurcatz level serve, in fact, his whole game is similar, but his forehand appears better. He can beat anyone it seems to me if he plays close to his best.

[stroke]

Jarry vs Paul pretty much a pick 'em. Zverev of course a a strong favorite over Tabilo.

[stroke]

Beaten by Jarry, Tsitsipas invokes a surprising motive: "I feel like I gave him the match"... https://tennistemple.com/r/news_RM5s

I like Tsitsipas, but not a good look here. Jarry definitely totally deserved his victory.