Wimbledon

[stroke]

So far, I am feeling a pause in play, maybe for a medical time out.

[stotty]

Novak doesn't seem to know what to do or have a game plan. Carlos has been ready for everything so far and Novak seems stumped. Carlos is half a step quicker in the rallies too.

[stotty]

3-1 Carlos

Novak playing slightly better in the 2nd but still not troubling Carlos in the slightest.

[stotty]

So much controlled power from Carlos. I can't see his level dropping as he looks so well within himself. Novak simply has to go for it...he's so flat at the moment.

[stroke]

3rs aet tiebreaker, after Carlos does not get it done serving at 5-4, 40 love.

[stotty]

Great win for Carlos. Apart from a brief spell where Novak finally came to life, it was a one horse race. He's an amazing player, not too dissimilar to Roger but with even more torque on that forehand. It's a stunning shot when in full flow.

[stroke]

Great win for Carlos. Apart from a brief spell where Novak finally came to life, it was a one horse race. He's an amazing player, not too dissimilar to Roger but with even more torque on that forehand. It's a stunning shot when in full flow.

Quite the injection of pace capabilities on that forehand, no doubt.

[jimlosaltos]

Sold win for the defending champ. First serves basically a standstill but once the ball is in play, Alcaraz was more offensive yet made fewer errors

Alcaraz +/- of an excellent +18 (42 winners less 24 UFEs) will Djokovic apparently misplaced the key to his lockdown mode +1 ( 26 win vs 25 UFE)

filedata/fetch?id=104938&d=1720972799&type=thumb

#

[stotty]

Quite the injection of pace capabilities on that forehand, no doubt.

I think Novak still moves great but is a tad slower accelerating to go out wide when he has to pick up speed. I think the movement margin made a key difference here and there.

I think Carlos can mix up the degrees of topspin on his forehand better than anyone I have seen, and can really crank it up when he wants too also. I haven't seen all his matches but today was the best I have seen him play this far....controlled power, variety and aggression beautifully employed to keep Novak off balance.

[jimlosaltos]

I think Novak still moves great but is a tad slower accelerating to go out wide when he has to pick up speed. I think the movement margin made a key difference here and there.

I think Carlos can mix up the degrees of topspin on his forehand better than anyone I have seen, and can really crank it up when he wants too also. I haven't seen all his matches but today was the best I have seen him play this far....controlled power, variety and aggression beautifully employed to keep Novak off balance.

In fairness, Djokovic in what seemed like a candid discussion of his injury said mid-week that he was slower pushing off because of the leg.

So, whether that is age or temporary perhaps remains to be seen.

[stroke]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/alcaraz-vs-djokovic-wimbledon-final?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc

[stotty]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughcl...droid&r=1t7zzc

Good analysis. I think it's fair to say Carlos new what was coming his way and Novak didn't quite anticipate what was coming his. I don't think I have ever witnessed such a pivotal moment in tennis. When you think what Roger and Rafa have thrown at Novak over the years yet he soaked up the whole lot and coped with pretty much everything superbly well. Sunday was a good deal more unsettling for Novak. Carlos has a bit more power than Roger and his deftness better timed in the spontaneous moments...and those gifted moments were so devastating. True, Novak is 37 and could have played better and he could moved better in some situations, but I am not sure it would have made any difference to the end result. That's why it was such a pivotal moment. When you think how good Novak is and that Carlos simply played a game that dismantled Novak. For a while I thought we were going to witness and take-down similar to when McEnroe demolished Connors at Wimbledon in 1984. It' didn't come to that but for a moment it was a possibility.

[stroke]

Good analysis. I think it's fair to say Carlos new what was coming his way and Novak didn't quite anticipate what was coming his. I don't think I have ever witnessed such a pivotal moment in tennis. When you think what Roger and Rafa have thrown at Novak over the years yet he soaked up the whole lot and coped with pretty much everything superbly well. Sunday was a good deal more unsettling for Novak. Carlos has a bit more power than Roger and his deftness better timed in the spontaneous moments...and those gifted moments were so devastating. True, Novak is 37 and could have played better and he could moved better in some situations, but I am not sure it would have made any difference to the end result. That's why it was such a pivotal moment. When you think how good Novak is and that Carlos simply played a game that dismantled Novak. For a while I thought we were going to witness and take-down similar to when McEnroe demolished Connors at Wimbledon in 1984. It' didn't come to that but for a moment it was a possibility.

Such a sage post. I really have nothing to add. Hugh is right now my favorite analysis on ATP matches.

[jimlosaltos]

Good analysis. I think it's fair to say Carlos new what was coming his way and Novak didn't quite anticipate what was coming his. I don't think I have ever witnessed such a pivotal moment in tennis. When you think what Roger and Rafa have thrown at Novak over the years yet he soaked up the whole lot and coped with pretty much everything superbly well. Sunday was a good deal more unsettling for Novak. Carlos has a bit more power than Roger and his deftness better timed in the spontaneous moments...and those gifted moments were so devastating. True, Novak is 37 and could have played better and he could moved better in some situations, but I am not sure it would have made any difference to the end result. That's why it was such a pivotal moment. When you think how good Novak is and that Carlos simply played a game that dismantled Novak. For a while I thought we were going to witness and take-down similar to when McEnroe demolished Connors at Wimbledon in 1984. It' didn't come to that but for a moment it was a possibility.

Thanks for sharing the link, stroke. Yes stottly, agreed that Alcaraz would likely have won regardless.

But Djokovic's net game, it perplexes me. This certainly wasn't a surprise tactic, Novak came to the net almost exactly as many times in the final as he did vs Musetti in their semifinal (53 vs 49). But Musetti predominantly bunts returns. Alcaraz is more versatile AND he is known for coming out swinging -- to a fault, perhaps overhitting to begin matches. Did Djokovic expect floaters? No Goran to tell him otherwise?

It isn't just all the clunked volleys, it's his positioning and movement at the net. I pulled this screen capture, I believe it is deuce and Djokovic chose to serve & volley behind his second serve. Fine. Alcaraz returns from where only Medvedev normally ventures, half way down the hall to the locker room, I think. We can't see him on camera. So Djoko can close to the net.

BUT Djokovic's hesitate-split step is behind the service T. First, he couldn't get past no-man's land behind a 106 MPH serve that had to travel to Brighton -- and back? Second he's right in the middle of the court when Alcaraz is returning from way outside the doubles alley? Right of the chair umpire!

It made me remember mixed doubles in the Tokyo Olympics. When Vesnina and Karatsev (eventual silver winners) I think it was, played Djokovic and ( Stojanovic? before he withdrew and stranded her), it was the only mixed doubles match I can recall where a team targeted the man at the net, not the woman.

So, he knew this wouldn't surprise Carlos, and it's his relative weakness. So, why did he emphasize it against someone with great passing shots and a good return game?

filedata/fetch?id=104971&d=1721237165&type=thumb

#

[stotty]

I don't remember Carlos standing that far back to return. I imagine Carlos is out of view because the serve is very wide.

One of the standout features of the match was how well Carlos positioned himself to return Novak's serve. It was perfectly tailored; not too far back not too far in. This was a major factor. It allowed Carlos enough time to return almost every serve and knife umpteen down the middle, which Novak dislikes.

Carlos's camp really did their homework. Carlos had to be consistent and stable and not have the usual erratic and give-points-away moments, because Novak would make him pay for that. I believe Novak was expecting Carlos to have his usual erratic moments...but they never came.

No one responds and bounces back from defeats like Novak. He takes a lot in and gets you next time. But this time he couldn't deal with Carlos's spontaneity. There is no way even Novak can predict a player who hits out-of-the-blue drops shots on a dime or rips the most improbable forehands. He does things no one expects. It's genius. If he had a beautiful serve, people would start talking about him in the same way as Roger. Alas, it's ugly so they won't.

Novak volleyed poorly off chipped shots from Carlos that were awkward to deal with. This happened at least six times and was another decisive feature of the game as they happened when Novak was in position to win games or at decisive points. Edberg or Henman would deal with that kind of volley easily but Novak can't volley that well. He doesn't close in enough and lacks the feel of a really good volleyer.