Shanghai

[stroke]

When Alex DeMinaur, who was ahead of Djokovic in the rankings, pulled out of the Asian swing with an injury, Djoko entered Paris. Not coincidental.

Rublev, who is also ahead of Djoko is recovering from a mystery injury that put him "7 hours from losing a limb". My completely unsubstantiated guess is that Rublev gave himself a thrombosis by savagely hammering his own thigh with his tennis racket after bad points. Just a guess.

Djoko served lights out against Fritz, not being broken once in the two sets and winning the decisive tiebreak.

Novak, to me the greatest player ever, is also not coincidentally, the best tiebreak player wver.

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/gCSBqcixJQxqU2gF6

[jimlosaltos]

Novak, to me the greatest player ever, is also not coincidentally, the best tiebreak player wver.

The Who: "Meet the new boss ... " Their H2H is 4-4 but, big but, Jannik has won four of the last five and 3 in a row, all on Novak's best surface, hard courts.

Highlight video at this link YT 8:13 min.

Only 5 points separate them and it is all on second serve points and in the tiebreak.

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[stotty]

I think both Sinner and Alcaraz overtook Novak around a year ago, despite Novak's exceptional win at the Olympics. It's going to be tough for Novak to win another slam going forwards.

[stroke]

The Who: "Meet the new boss ... " Their H2H is 4-4 but, big but, Jannik has won four of the last five and 3 in a row, all on Novak's best surface, hard courts.

Highlight video at this link YT 8:13 min.

Only 5 points separate them and it is all on second serve points and in the tiebreak.

filedata/fetch?id=105693&d=1728838839&type=thumb

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Novak played great, Sinner played better. Sinner injection of pace, particularly on the forehand but also available on the backhand, is something to behold. Novak plays great defense, was totally engaged, and was caught completely flat footed watching some of Sinner's video game shots.

[jimlosaltos]

Novak played great, Sinner played better. Sinner injection of pace, particularly on the forehand but also available on the backhand, is something to behold. Novak plays great defense, was totally engaged, and was caught completely flat footed watching some of Sinner's video game shots.

Craig O'Shannessy had some analysis in his ATP column with numbers strangely missing on the rest of ATP site.

While Sinner only ended up with 5 more points than Djokovic he hit 23 winners to Djokovic's 12

Forehand Dominance: Djokovic was actually hitting his forehand with slightly more velocity (81 MPH to 79 MPH, both quite high). But Sinner was getting to his forehand earlier (62% serve + 1 forehands winning 61%, vs getting to only 42% for Djokovic and winning 53%)

Also, Djokovic's net play, which helped him in the Olympics failed him (as it did at Wimbledon) winning only 45% (5/11) points coming forward.

[stroke]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/sinner-vs-djokovic-shanghai-final?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc

[stotty]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughcl...droid&r=1t7zzc

Good analysis and summary as usual. I just don't see how Novak can combat a younger version of himself with a bit more power and willingness to use it. I have never seen Novak serve better than isn the latter part of his career. At Wimbledon that might be useful and could give him a shot a winning a last slam.

[jimlosaltos]

Good analysis and summary as usual. I just don't see how Novak can combat a younger version of himself with a bit more power and willingness to use it. I have never seen Novak serve better than isn the latter part of his career. At Wimbledon that might be useful and could give him a shot a winning a last slam.

This comparison of the ATP shot ratings shows IMHO how Novak's game has changed in his latter years.

Sinner ranks higher in every category, including return and backhand, EXCEPT the serve. Djokovic improved his serve & forehand to compensate for a relative decline in his two biggest strengths, the return and backhand. That seems pretty remarkable. Granted the differences here are minuscule, probably less than the variation from event to event. { I'd add the ATP should include "Net Play" or "Volley" where Sinner would be far ahead. }

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[stroke]

It is amazing to me that Novak is quantitatively as close to the number 1 Sinner as he is.

[jimlosaltos]

It is amazing to me that Novak is quantitatively as close to the number 1 Sinner as he is.

Yes. Although the Tennis Insight metrics to avoid Djokovic's relative weaknesses. There is no info (at least made public) on overall net play/ or volleys, nor on overheads.

But what Djokovic has done to extend his career by improving his serve and forehand is amazing.

[stroke]

Yes. Although the Tennis Insight metrics to avoid Djokovic's relative weaknesses. There is no info (at least made public) on overall net play/ or volleys, nor on overheads.

But what Djokovic has done to extend his career by improving his serve and forehand is amazing.

That is true. Novak would definitely trail a lot of good players in a measurement of net play/volleys/overheads. Maybe not Fritz, Medvedev, and Rublev. That being said, there are certainly no McEnroes, Rafters, Sampras, Cash, Stephaneks, in the top 20.

[jimlosaltos]

Timely article By Charlie Eccleshare at The Athletic, link here. {Paywall / or NYT sub }

Charlie focuses on declining returns, and notes Djokovic's losses have been cushioned by the draws his ranking has given him, a lagging edge that is starting to go away. Djokovic is playing fewer matches, and has 1,000 points to defend in Paris.

1) In Shanghai on Sunday, perhaps the finest returner in the history of the sport had similar struggles, this time winning just 34.6 per cent of second-serve return points — again his third-worst showing of 2024.

2) Against Alcaraz at Wimbledon, an admittedly not-fully-fit Djokovic again returned poorly. He won 16.1 percent of first-serve return points, his second-lowest total of the year,

Chart from The Athletic : Djokovic's win percentage went below his career average for the first time since 2018, following his breakout year in 2011 (70 W -6 L, 92%)

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[stotty]

I still think Novak can do it if he really needs to. The Olympic final would be a good example. Sure, you could say that Carlos wasn't playing so great and pose all manner of arguments but at the end of the day Novak played bloody well, controlled affairs, and won...and that's the end of the story.

He'll find those amazing returns if the stakes are high enough. I have never seen anyone return like Novak at the most pivotal moments in matches. Just ask Roger.

Far more interesting to me a is how Novak and Roger adapted with age. Roger, amongst other things, beefed up his backhand and ventured to the net more. Novak has honed his serve and hits his ground strokes ball harder than he used to...although more conservative in his placement. He volleys better than in his younger days but is still woeful at times in that department. Carlos is the best of the bunch in the volley department but still not in the same street as countless bygone players.

[jimlosaltos]

I still think Novak can do it if he really needs to. The Olympic final would be a good example. Sure, you could say that Carlos wasn't playing so great and pose all manner of arguments but at the end of the day Novak played bloody well, controlled affairs, and won...and that's the end of the story.

He'll find those amazing returns if the stakes are high enough. I have never seen anyone return like Novak at the most pivotal moments in matches. Just ask Roger.

Far more interesting to me a is how Novak and Roger adapted with age. Roger, amongst other things, beefed up his backhand and ventured to the net more. Novak has honed his serve and hits his ground strokes ball harder than he used to...although more conservative in his placement. He volleys better than in his younger days but is still woeful at times in that department. Carlos is the best of the bunch in the volley department but still not in the same street as countless bygone players.

Agree that can and might. A problem going forward in 2025 is that, without the favorable draws his rank has helped him get, he'd have to do it more times possibly in a row.