ATP Next Gen Finals aka Jeddah

[jimlosaltos]

Does Joao Fonseca hit DTL a lot? Or Not?

Jeff Sackmann says the TV numbers were misleading (They divided forehands into only "to forehand" or "to backhand", and the second doesn't necessarily mean "DTL"). Says, Fonseca's forehand is impressive for a 18 year old ( or anybody) but that his distinctive, winning play is actually up the middle, big. Numbers and analysis at" Joao Fonseca and Damage Down the Line"

Jeff argues most players hit up the middle out of necessity but Joao goes there to win. "Of the 220-plus players with as many down-the-middle forehands as Fonseca in the MCP database, only 23 win more than half of those points. The Brazilian ranks fourth by points won when hitting down-the-middle forehands."

Fonseca tops Tennis Abstract's table for getting either a winner or a forced error while hitting a forehand down the middle.

Rank Player W/FE% inPtsWon%

1 Joao Fonseca 6.4% 52.8%
2 Fernando Gonzalez 6.0% 43.2%
3 Christopher Eubanks 5.7% 38.8%
4 Thanasi Kokkinakis 5.0% 46.1%
5 Tomas Machac 4.9% 43.8%
6 Nicolas Jarry 4.7% 41.7%
7 Alexei Popyrin 4.4% 41.8%
8 Sam Querrey 4.3% 41.8%
9 Max Purcell 4.0% 38.5%
10 Lorenzo Sonego 3.9% 46.0%
11 Matteo Arnaldi 3.8% 49.5%
12 Lucas Pouille 3.4% 42.9%
13 Jan-Lennard Struff 3.3% 45.6%
14 Matteo Berrettini 3.3% 42.1%
15 John McEnroe 3.3% 44.0%
16 Otto Virtanen 3.2% 35.8%
17 Boris Becker 3.2% 44.1%
18 Nick Kyrgios 3.2% 43.2%
19 Roger Federer 3.2% 47.6%
20 Carlos Alcaraz 3.2% 50.2%

[stotty]

I watched Fonseca for the first time, playing Tien. He's good, very good, no question. He seems to have two gears; flat out and even more flat out. It will be interesting to see how far he goes.

In some ways I was more impressed with Tien. He's intelligent and plays really well with what he's got. He served great and his forehand was superb also. Compared to Fonseca he's a unlikely looking athlete yet he gets around and does many things just as well. He makes the most of his left-handed-ness, for sure.

[stroke]

Tien reminded me a bit of Nishikori. Undersized by today's standards, but he is great off both sides and takes the ball on early. As a lefty, his slice serve is very effective, somewhat like Mannarino. Fonseca, now would be a great time to put down a bet on him at RG. His odds could change very quickly during the clay court swing.

[jimlosaltos]

Tien has a tricky game, very smart, but may be out-powered against the big boys. Fonseca looks like a star in the making. So impressed with his game and actually enjoy watching him. And to think, he had committed to UVA to play college tennis.

Kyle LaCroix
Boca Raton
SETS

I read that Jannik Sinner talked Fonseca out of going to college. Told him his game was good enough now and to go for it.

[klacr]

Indeed. First time I'd seen him play.

ATP Scoreline: Learner Tien became the third American to reach the Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF title match on Saturday in Jeddah, where he beat long-time friend Alex Michelsen 2-4, 4-2, 1-4, 4-0, 4-1.

Sackmann's take pre match, excerpts: "Can Learner Tien Hang With the Big Boys? Tien’s transition from the Challenger tour to the big leagues could be rocky. Good defense and well-executed tactics are enough to clean up against top-200 competition. The combination was (just barely) sufficient against Mensik yesterday. But a full-time spot on the ATP tour requires more... The overall package is something between those of two other left-handers, Adrian Mannarino and Cam Norrie. Mannarino, also a sub-six-footer, throws the kitchen sink at opponents, keeping them off balance to compensate for his own lack of power. Norrie is considerably taller and has more firepower at his disposal. But he, too, refuses any rhythm to the man across the net. He alternates a loopy forehand with a flat backhand–except when he doesn’t, if you ever think you’ve found a groove.

Tien has a tricky game, very smart, but may be out-powered against the big boys. Fonseca looks like a star in the making. So impressed with his game and actually enjoy watching him. And to think, he had committed to UVA to play college tennis.

Kyle LaCroix
Boca Raton
SETS

[jimlosaltos]

Excerpt from a profile of Joao Fonseca on The Athletic by Matthew Futterman.


"This is a typical training day schedule for him, which begins with tests on his muscles to determine how hard he can go that day:

• 8:30 a.m.: Tests
• 9 a.m.: Physiotherapy and warm-up
• 10 a.m.: Gym
• 11 a.m.: Practice on court
• 1 p.m.: Lunch and rest
• 3 p.m.: On court
• 4:30 p.m.: Gym
• 5:30pm: Physiotherapy, if needed

"Teixeira said Fonseca is also paying more attention to his rest and what he eats. He is diligent with breathing exercises that can help him stay calm during matches. Improving his footwork is high on the agenda for 2025.

"Fonseca is still a teenager, though. He can only manage a month or so away from home before fatigue and homesickness set in. This season, he tried to play tournaments for four or five weeks, before returning home for a couple weeks of training and seeing his friends and family.

~~~~~~

"He was lucky enough to be born into a family of means with sports-mad parents. His mother flirted with professional volleyball. She and her husband, who competed in junior tennis in Brazil as a teenager, have run half-marathons and competed in road and mountain cycling and adventure races.

[jimlosaltos]

Unsteady, up and down match. Fonseca started out slowly with his forehand uncharacteristically off. Tien had far more forehand winners than the Brazilian in the first set and was returning great.

But Fonseca steadied the ship, and pulled away.

For the match, groundstroke velocities are almost identical, with any edge going to the much smaller American. But in the end, the better serve took over.

1 of 2 for third set where Fonseca took over with a .. let's call it a micro-bagel at 4-0.

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2 of 2 For entire match

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[jimlosaltos]

Well, I did not see this coming - Learner Tien takes the first set against almost-prohibitive favorite Joao Sousa.

The diminutive Tien has won more points on his first serve (82% vs 75%) despite serving a whopping 18 MPH slower ( Joao ave 126 mph first, Tien 108 ). Sackmann said Tien's return was good, and I guess he was right.

[stroke]

https://www.instagram.com/p/DD2lcdAu4cI/?img_index=1&igsh=MXJ4MzdwbzUwM3lkYg==

[stroke]

Fonseca and his injection of pace forehand and rock solid top 3 ATP on tour backhand looks a lot like Sinner. He certainly looks like a future multiple GS winner. His first may happen this next year at RG. How soon for top 10 the question. He also is a very likeable humble young man.

[jimlosaltos]

Learner Tien is rock solid off both wings, impressive win over Mickelson to reach the Final. He started the year just out of the top 500, and here he is. Such a nice humble young man.

Indeed. First time I'd seen him play.

ATP Scoreline: Learner Tien became the third American to reach the Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF title match on Saturday in Jeddah, where he beat long-time friend Alex Michelsen 2-4, 4-2, 1-4, 4-0, 4-1.

Sackmann's take pre match, excerpts: "Can Learner Tien Hang With the Big Boys? Tien’s transition from the Challenger tour to the big leagues could be rocky. Good defense and well-executed tactics are enough to clean up against top-200 competition. The combination was (just barely) sufficient against Mensik yesterday. But a full-time spot on the ATP tour requires more... The overall package is something between those of two other left-handers, Adrian Mannarino and Cam Norrie. Mannarino, also a sub-six-footer, throws the kitchen sink at opponents, keeping them off balance to compensate for his own lack of power. Norrie is considerably taller and has more firepower at his disposal. But he, too, refuses any rhythm to the man across the net. He alternates a loopy forehand with a flat backhand–except when he doesn’t, if you ever think you’ve found a groove.

[stroke]

Learner Tien is rock solid off both wings, impressive win over Mickelson to reach the Final. He started the year just out of the top 500, and here he is. Such a nice humble young man.

[jimlosaltos]

The round robin matches are complete, and the reverse singles semifinals are tomorrow. Two Americans meet in the first one, 20 yo Alex Michelson vs 19 yo Learner Tien, who has been tearing up the Challenger events. This is followed by our early "Pick To Watch" 18 yo Brazilian Joao Fonseca vs 20 yo French/Belgian Luca Van Assche.

Fonseca and Michelsen each finished the round robin stages undefeated at 3-0, albeit not without some difficulty. This afternoon Fonseca beat Jakub Mensik in 5 fast-four sets with a staggering five(5) tiebreaks: 3-4(4), 4-3(8), 4-3(5), 3-4(4), 4-3(5). Here are 12:08 minutes of highlights from the day incl Fonseca-Mensik. I haven't watched that video yet, But I'll still venture that I don't think I've seen anyone that can hit down-the-line off both sides with such power as often as Fonseca. And Mensik is simply a beast. Please wear a hockey mask if you get too close to your TV!

Note in this table that Michelsen won his group while barely winning over half his games: 27-24, yet he won 9 of 11 sets. Fonseca won 57+% of his games 47-35. Very different routes to the same end.

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[stroke]

The crowd is loving Fonseca in Saudi. His forehand is something.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/8YiSPS8VQCanepi56

[stroke]

I saw that, it was unbelievable. Things were not going his way in the match vs Fils, he takes a bathroom break, and then that. He was understandably very unhappy. The Chair Umpire did immediately get involved and jumped to his defense. I am thinking maybe whoever is in charge of this stupidity somehow thought the match over.