Australian Open

[jimlosaltos]

Yeah I guess this is obvious, but I guess if you have a big forehand, you are going to have a huge serve, as they seem to be related. But what I noticed is he plays well in big points. On atptour.com, you can go to challenger TV and watch free tennis matches, and the matches are saved (so you can skip 10 seconds ahead to get to the point). I watched the recent challenger with him playing Ethan Quinn. He just overpowered Ethan Quinn, which is crazy because Ethan Quinn hits really, really hard. But there was one game I think he was down 0 - 40 on his serve and he came back and won that game.

I think that combination of forehand and serve, plus playing well in big points you are going to win a lot. The only thing I saw in the challenger is he would sometime go for too much and miss by a lot on some shots. But if it goes to his forehand, it is almost a guaranteed winner.

As for playing the big points well, Andrea Petkovic had an interesting observation: roughly, "Fonseca UPS his velocity on the big points - like Sinner. He was hitting about 11 mph faster in the tiebreak." Turns out she was right 145 kph or about 90 MPH Ave in the first time.

can't upload the the image but 145 kph vs 134 kph before.

[stroke]

It looks like Fonseca could very well in up in a quarterfinal showdown with Fritz. Medvedev, Musetti, and Sheldon are floating around in that quarter also though.

[jimlosaltos]

It looks like Fonseca could very well in up in a quarterfinal showdown with Fritz. Medvedev, Musetti, and Sheldon are floating around in that quarter also though.

Fonseca - Medy is intriguing. Does Medy return from the cheap seats? Drop shots galore?

[jimlosaltos]

As for playing the big points well, Andrea Petkovic had an interesting observation: roughly, "Fonseca UPS his velocity on the big points - like Sinner. He was hitting about 11 mph faster in the tiebreak." Turns out she was right 145 kph or about 90 MPH Ave in the first time.

can't upload the the image but 145 kph vs 134 kph before.

Couldn't upload to the original post, so let's try a reply.

Anyway - point is that like Sinner, 18 yo Fonseca steps it up in tiebreaks

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[neilchok]

I just can't believe he is 18! At 18 I was playing on my varsity high school tennis team. Fonseca is beating Rublev, and blowing adult men off the court. I don't even know how it is possible to be that good that quickly.

[jimlosaltos]

I just can't believe he is 18! At 18 I was playing on my varsity high school tennis team. Fonseca is beating Rublev, and blowing adult men off the court. I don't even know how it is possible to be that good that quickly.

At the risk of prematurely putting Joao in elite company, there are only a handful of players that have emerged this quickly -- and if memory serves, few have seemed so mature. Put aside the baby face and he looks and acts like a veteran.

Sinner looked potentially elite at the same age BUT his game was not as complete ( IMHO ) and he seemed a a teenager, a great one, but a teen.

Now, part of that is that we { or me, anyways} have not seen him under duress, or in a situation where he is a hyped favorite, or after the grind of playing 70 matches, etc, etc, etc.

But, man is he impressive.

[jimlosaltos]

Darnn, we cursed him

ATP: "The teenager finally ran out of steam though in the first five-setter of his career against experienced Lorenzo Sonego. The Italian’s 6-7(8) 6-3 6-1 3-6 6-3 victory marked the first defeat for Fonseca since November after an astonishing 14-match win streak."

I haven't watched this match yet but Sonego was 31/42 at the net ( with 15 volleys?) so pressured Fonseca.

Here are 3:18 min of highlights on YT.

[jimlosaltos]

Medvedev out to 19 yo American lefty Leaner Tien in Medy's second straight 5 setter.

It says as much at Craig Tiley's organization as it does about Tien that they didn't even have a photo of him - even after his run in Jeddah.

In fairness, Medy and his wife Daria just had their second child and he might be distracted by far more important things.

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[neilchok]

I don't understand how Leaner won. I saw him play at a men's future event in San Diego, and there was nothing that impressed me. He seemed like a really good junior. He was playing Karue Sell. I actually got bored and left after about a set, it seemed like watching just two junior tennis players playing. I don't understand how from that time to less than 2 years he is beating one of the best tennis players in the last 10 years. I saw him play Fonseca at NextGen and he got over powered, and just did not seem to be able to keep up.

To earn a spot through qualifiers, you have to be good. I didn't watch this match between Daniel and Learner however. I heard he is a really nice person though.

[neilchok]

the other thing you can see is how the slow the shots are compared to other tournaments. I know they use those weird dunlop balls, that are basically like bricks to hit. Not sure if they are using those same balls at all tournaments, but seeing the highlights of rublev Fonseca, you can see the ball is just not penetrating as much.

[stroke]

At the risk of prematurely putting Joao in elite company, there are only a handful of players that have emerged this quickly -- and if memory serves, few have seemed so mature. Put aside the baby face and he looks and acts like a veteran.

Sinner looked potentially elite at the same age BUT his game was not as complete ( IMHO ) and he seemed a a teenager, a great one, but a teen.

Now, part of that is that we { or me, anyways} have not seen him under duress, or in a situation where he is a hyped favorite, or after the grind of playing 70 matches, etc, etc, etc.

But, man is he impressive.

Nadal still the gold standard, winning the FO as the favorite at barely 19 years old. He would have probably won it at barely 18, but was out injured. Fonseca may win it this year. We will see.

[hybridfh]

I don't understand how Leaner won. I saw him play at a men's future event in San Diego, and there was nothing that impressed me. He seemed like a really good junior. He was playing Karue Sell. I actually got bored and left after about a set, it seemed like watching just two junior tennis players playing. I don't understand how from that time to less than 2 years he is beating one of the best tennis players in the last 10 years. I saw him play Fonseca at NextGen and he got over powered, and just did not seem to be able to keep up.

To earn a spot through qualifiers, you have to be good. I didn't watch this match between Daniel and Learner however. I heard he is a really nice person though.

I watched almost all of the NextGen matches and was impressed with Tien. When I saw the draw with Medvedev, I thought it would be a great match-up for Tien as they play similar counter-punching styles but with Tien having more firepower (except maybe on serve), and also because it seemed Tien got better with every match. So I'm really not surprised at the result.

[jimlosaltos]

I watched almost all of the NextGen matches and was impressed with Tien. When I saw the draw with Medvedev, I thought it would be a great match-up for Tien as they play similar counter-punching styles but with Tien having more firepower (except maybe on serve), and also because it seemed Tien got better with every match. So I'm really not surprised at the result.

Based on an admittedly small sample, I see players with great forehands attacking Tien's lefty backhand and running into a brick wall.

[jimlosaltos]

the other thing you can see is how the slow the shots are compared to other tournaments. I know they use those weird dunlop balls, that are basically like bricks to hit. Not sure if they are using those same balls at all tournaments, but seeing the highlights of rublev Fonseca, you can see the ball is just not penetrating as much.

Well, Zverev and Medvedev aren't just whining the balls have been slowed all across pro tennis. Zverev said core material made cheaper during Covid and they haven't changed back. Doesn't retain pressure. Then fluffs. Zverev cited Dunlop as the best and said they changed to cheaper material as well.

[stroke]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/australian-open-update-round-2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc