Wimbledon

[jimlosaltos]

Anisimova is through! 11-9 in the second set tiebreaker.

Semifinals vs Sabalenka.

[jimlosaltos]

Alcaraz is cruising so far vs Norrie. Not to curse things, but a Fritz-Alcaraz semifinal might be interesting, even though Fritz has never won a set off Carlos in their only 2 meetings.

[stroke]

Agreed BUT some broadcasters, notably ESPN in the US, might be equally or more to blame. They choose what sounds to pick up and how much to amplify it, adding "action" to the broadest my making the grunts louder than then are in the stadium.. I'm starting to believe they also add artificial sound. I've noticed rallies where the ball is just booming off players rackets, then someone hits a soft, drop volley and mysteriously that also makes a loud noise. Someone forgot to turn off the tennis equivalent of a laugh track.

As JY like to say, we will have to agree to disagree on "the blame" here

[don_budge]

The Match of the Tournament that Never Was...Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jannik Sinner

Grigor "The Bulgarian Playboy" Dimitrov needs to channel his inner "Baby Fed" and it appears that he might be approaching the Sinner match along those lines. A generous portion of slice backhands at the onset of the match.

Now the acid test for the service motion…serving out the set.

Now the acid test for the service motion…serving out the set.

Channeling the inner “Baby Fed”.

Grigor certainly had this one in his wheelhouse yesterday. I believe he failed to serve out the second set on the first try, thus failing the serving motion acid test. No surprise. It appears he managed on the second try but he must have had to break back. It was an interesting match by today's standards but not quite up to the Roger Federer standard. Roger made the draw interesting. With him in the draw the field as a whole became infinitely more interesting.

Dimitrov was using his slice backhand more effectively than I have ever seen him in a huge match. This would have been such a huge win for him if he had managed to pull it off. It was very interesting to watch him pull a page out of the don_budge book of tennis tactics, watching him slice and dice his stronger and younger opponent. The Wimbledon grass just fast enough to make this possible. Grigor was really applying the juice to the underspin and one ball hit the service line and slid under Sinner's racquet untouched. A whiff...swing and a miss. Not surprisingly it seemed that Dimitrov was struggling a tad with the serve under such intense pressure and scrutiny. The motion that was never fixed. The little hitch. Enough to throw the motion off the track...particularly under pressure.

But the entire tournament has been in foreplay mode so far. Nothing has happened and the field is only jockeying for position. A Sinner upset would have been the exception to the norm. A real shame about the injury. A pec muscle? Odd. Dimitrov at 34 years of age is getting to the point where the legs are a question mark. Djokovic has crossed this threshold extremely well. Federer managed for a few years as well until the knees cried out...no mas. Nadal also succumbed to Father Time. Time to hit the links...the golf course. You need fresh legs in this business. Novak remains the only compelling question left in the field. Hopefully he can break the monotony. Another Sinner/Alcarez snooze fest is not what tennis needs. It is not watchable.

[stroke]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/wimbledon-week-1-notes?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc

Here is a good write up by Hugh week 1 Wimbledon. He points out quantitatively that Grigor's slice bh has the most rpm's and mph's on Tour. I am certainly not surprised. I have long felt he had the 2nd best on Tour after Roger.

[stotty]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/wimbledon-week-1-notes?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android& r=1t7zzc

Here is a good write up by Hugh week 1 Wimbledon. He points out quantitatively that Grigor's slice bh has the most rpm's and mph's on Tour. I am certainly not surprised. I have long felt he had the 2nd best on Tour after Roger.

I've seen it up close and can say it’s definitely one of the best, if not the best, out there. He really cuts into it and gets it to move quick. He did a fantastic job with it all week — done that well, slice is a weapon and not just something used for a tactical change up.

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/hKKmF6b6HfN3tNaH6

Betting odds. Certainly the match of the 3 is Fritz vs Carlos. Fritz is playing at the best level he ever has, but certainly up against it vs Carlos. He is giving up a lot of foot speed/raw athletism, and hand skills. Fritz has a great forehand, but Carlos' is better. Fritz probably has a slightly better 1st serve. That is about it. I think Fritz may have a slightly better bh, but not significant edge there.

[jimlosaltos]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/hKKmF6b6HfN3tNaH6

Betting odds. Certainly the match of the 3 is Fritz vs Carlos. Fritz is playing at the best level he ever has, but certainly up against it vs Carlos. He is giving up a lot of foot speed/raw athletism, and hand skills. Fritz has a great forehand, but Carlos' is better. Fritz probably has a slightly better 1st serve. That is about it. I think Fritz may have a slightly better bh, but not significant edge there.

Sounds right. I wonder what the odds are on Sinner-Shelton. Sinner skipped practice today to get an MRI on is elbow. I watched Sinner vs Alcaraz at Indian Wells when Sinner slipped and fell in a very similar manner, albeit on hard courts, hit his elbow and went from being on top of the match to just playing it out gamely. Coincidence, but eerily similar. Darren Cahill apparently teaches his charges most everything they need to know about tennis --- except the tuck-and-roll

[stroke]

Sounds right. I wonder what the odds are on Sinner-Shelton. Sinner skipped practice today to get an MRI on is elbow. I watched Sinner vs Alcaraz at Indian Wells when Sinner slipped and fell in a very similar manner, albeit on hard courts, hit his elbow and went from being on top of the match to just playing it out gamely. Coincidence, but eerily similar. Darren Cahill apparently teaches his charges most everything they need to know about tennis --- except the tuck-and-roll

Those odds were listed in the screenshot I posted. Sinner is of course favored with an implied probability of winning at 75%.

[jimlosaltos]

Those odds were listed in the screenshot I posted. Sinner is of course favored with an implied probability of winning at 75%.

I was wondering if there were last minute shifts. Sometimes the betting market gets inside info on injuries and the like. But then, it looks like Sinner's arm is just fine. For now.

[jimlosaltos]

Grigor Dimitrov has a partial tear of his pectorals major muscle. He could return in time for the US Open in August.

I can't recall a tennis player getting this injury. It is common with NFL interior linemen, who tear chest muscles while in tugging and pushing battles with opposing linemen. Often they are season ending.

per this report from Bulgaria's Tennis Kafe.

https://www-tenniskafe-com.translate.goog/atp/grigor-dimitrov/grigor-dimitrov-e-s-chastichno-razkasan-muskul-propuska-3-turnira/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[stotty]

Novak squeezes through. It’s tough being an all time great. Youngsters come at you with all they’ve got and not a care in the world…nothing to lose; a guaranteed recipe for playing a great game of tennis.

Sinner had a touch when you think about it. He was being masterfully pulled apart by a great all round player in what was, thus far — along with Carlos vs Fabio — the match of the tournament. It was a shot-making spectacle and a text book lesson in how to take down a baseline bot. Sinner was saved by the bell and may now go on to win the tournament. He still has to get through Novak, however, which will be no formality.

[jimlosaltos]

Novak squeezes through. It’s tough being an all time great. Youngsters come at you with all they’ve got and not a care in the world…nothing to lose; a guaranteed recipe for playing a great game of tennis.

Sinner had a touch when you think about it. He was being masterfully pulled apart by a great all round player in what was, thus far — along with Carlos vs Fabio — the match of the tournament. It was a shot-making spectacle and a text book lesson in how to take down a baseline bot. Sinner was saved by the bell and may now go on to win the tournament. He still has to get through Novak, however, which will be no formality.

I've always appreciated Grigor's game but I've never seen him serve for a sustained period like that.

He was hitting lines -- side lines, service line -- repeatedly while averaging 129 MPH, max 141 MPH. He averaged 132 MPH for the first set.

Won 41/49 first serve points. As you and stroke have discussed, Grigor also gave a master class in using backhand slice.

[jimlosaltos]

Novak squeezes through. It’s tough being an all time great. Youngsters come at you with all they’ve got and not a care in the world…nothing to lose; a guaranteed recipe for playing a great game of tennis.

Sinner had a touch when you think about it. He was being masterfully pulled apart by a great all round player in what was, thus far — along with Carlos vs Fabio — the match of the tournament. It was a shot-making spectacle and a text book lesson in how to take down a baseline bot. Sinner was saved by the bell and may now go on to win the tournament. He still has to get through Novak, however, which will be no formality.

Why do I feel like Sinner is the underdog in his semi with Djokovic?

Grass, maybe? Not as consistent since his mandatory vacation?

filedata/fetch?id=107870&d=1752095626&type=thumb

[stotty]

Why do I feel like Sinner is the underdog in his semi with Djokovic?

Grass, maybe? Not as consistent since his mandatory vacation?

He’s not the underdog. Novak is 38 and now a step slower than he was — compensated for by spot serving. Sinner is 23; a bigger advantage. Nevertheless, Sinner will have to really play well and if he does he wins. But if he loses his bottle or wobbles…sorry, but your least favourite player wins.