Australian Open 2026

[stotty]

Men's Quarterfinals


Alcaraz vs de Minaur {Does the Aussie have a puncher's chance? One of best hard court records in last year

Zverv vs Tien. One of the biggest, all-around hitters in tennis vs perhaps the best today at redirecting power.

Musetti vs Djokovic Novak may have lucked out when Jacob Mensik, who beat Novak on a hard court when they met last year had to default in the prior round. Musetti's worst surface is hard courts, and he's only beaten Novak once, that on clay. But the Italian's game is diversifying, growing and I'm sure he still remembers going up 2 sets to love on Novak when he was only 17 yo.

Shelton vs Sinner Like Novak, Jannik escaped, his Houdini imitation occurred in an early round when a heat delay let a wobby Sinner recover. As for Ben, he took a long time to recover from an apparent shoulder injury, but he has. H2H 8 in a row to Sinner vs Shelton sole victory in their first match

I think Musetti has a reasonable chance against Novak if he edges up closer to the baseline and plays assertively. He’s so talented.

For me, when this tournament started, I felt Novak needed three things to go his way to win the whole thing: a w/o in the latter rounds, one of either Sinner or Alcaraz to get knocked out, and play the match of his career be it Sinner or Carlos. Well the w/o is in the bag…let’s see what follows.

I can’t see Shelton disturbing Sinner too much.

The interesting match will be Tien v Zverez.

[jimlosaltos]

I think Musetti has a reasonable chance against Novak if he edges up closer to the baseline and plays assertively. He’s so talented.

For me, when this tournament started, I felt Novak needed three things to go his way to win the whole thing: a w/o in the latter rounds, one of either Sinner or Alcaraz to get knocked out, and play the match of his career be it Sinner or Carlos. Well the w/o is in the bag…let’s see what follows.

I can’t see Shelton disturbing Sinner too much.

The interesting match will be Tien v Zverez.

Tien-Zverev was a bit disappointing. Youngster did split a pair of tiebreaks, but 24 aces was too much.

Things are breaking Novak's way a bit. Pains me to type that

[jimlosaltos]

Had a discussion elsewhere that I couldn't remember seeing so many straight set matches.
Don't have a number on that, but found this from Ben Rothenberg on his Bounces/ Substack:

"The top six seeds in both the men’s and women’s singles draws at the 2026 Australian Open all made it to the quarterfinals, which has never before happened at any major.

Also, "this is the first time since the 2010 U.S. Open, 2011 Australian Open, and 2011 French Open that there has been a run of three consecutive major events with no new singles semifinalists on either the women’s or men’s side. Though the men had very few breakout runs a decade ago during the heyday of the Big Four, there hasn’t been any comparable gap on the women’s side since that 2010-2011 stretch.

Let's see ... here's a link:

https://open.substack.com/pub/benrothenberg/p/australian-open-tennis-results-quarterfinals-semifinals-previews-scores-djokovic-musetti-sinner-shelton?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

[stotty]

Had a discussion elsewhere that I couldn't remember seeing so many straight set matches.
Don't have a number on that, but found this from Ben Rothenberg on his Bounces/ Substack:

"The top six seeds in both the men’s and women’s singles draws at the 2026 Australian Open all made it to the quarterfinals, which has never before happened at any major.

Also, "this is the first time since the 2010 U.S. Open, 2011 Australian Open, and 2011 French Open that there has been a run of three consecutive major events with no new singles semifinalists on either the women’s or men’s side. Though the men had very few breakout runs a decade ago during the heyday of the Big Four, there hasn’t been any comparable gap on the women’s side since that 2010-2011 stretch.

Let's see ... here's a link:

https://open.substack.com/pub/benrothenberg/p/australian-open-tennis-results-quarterfinals-semifinals-previews-scores-djokovic-musetti-sinner-shelton?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Well, it’s not been the most memorable Aussie Open thus far in terms of close or exciting matches.

[jimlosaltos]

First seed to go is Coco Here's what Portuguese journo Jose Morgado posted about her loss to Svitolina:

It was amazing from Svitolina but one of the worst performances I can recall from a top 3 player, specially in a big match like this. 3 winners 26 unforced errors 13/32 on 1st serve 2/11 (!) on 2nd serve Tough to believe.

[jimlosaltos]

I think Musetti has a reasonable chance against Novak if he edges up closer to the baseline and plays assertively. He’s so talented.

For me, when this tournament started, I felt Novak needed three things to go his way to win the whole thing: a w/o in the latter rounds, one of either Sinner or Alcaraz to get knocked out, and play the match of his career be it Sinner or Carlos. Well the w/o is in the bag…let’s see what follows.

I can’t see Shelton disturbing Sinner too much.

The interesting match will be Tien v Zverez.

You were right about Musetti, stotty, although he stuck to his comfort zone and was beating Djokovic readily from deep. Wouldn't let Novak have an easy point, and served well.

Shame about the injury ( heard a "pop", presumably a groin pull?). Musetti now has the unusual distinction of leading one of the Big 3 by two sets to love twice at a major and losing both in a retirement. Not sure if that's unique but it must be painfully disappointing.

[jimlosaltos]

Men's Semifinals

Alcaraz vs Zverev H2H tied at 6 all. The German beat Carlos in the 2021 Australian Open quarters.

Djokovic vs Sinner H2H 4-6 with 5 straight to La Carotta, but Djoko's got that new rabbit foot or hex or whatever this fortnight.


Women's Semifinals

Sabalenka Vs Svitolina H2H 5-1 but the 31 year old mom is playing with the house's money.

Pegula vs Rybakina H2H 3-3 Rybakina won their semifinal in the WTA Finals Saudi Arabia, only time they've met since 2023.

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[stotty]

You were right about Musetti, stotty, although he stuck to his comfort zone and was beating Djokovic readily from deep. Wouldn't let Novak have an easy point, and served well.

Shame about the injury ( heard a "pop", presumably a groin pull?). Musetti now has the unusual distinction of leading one of the Big 3 by two sets to love twice at a major and losing both in a retirement. Not sure if that's unique but it must be painfully disappointing.

I missed the match other than the highlights. Musetti is so talented you feel he has a chance against anyone. He may even creep up to challenge Carlos and Sinner in the next year or two. It will have given him some comfort at least to have been leading Novak so convincingly. After all, Novak is still playing so well so it’s not like he was defeating a has been. It’s a cruel blow to get injured like that…similar to Dimitrov v Sinner last Wimbledon.

[jimlosaltos]

So, Djokovic gets into tonight's semifinal without winning a single set in the second week, losing the only 2 sets he played, but getting a walkover and a retirement.

You can only play who shows up but ...

Djokovic has won only 3 matches on court this fortnight and those were vs players with an average ranking of almost 100.
.

Pedro Martinez R71
Francisco Mastrelli R141
Botic va de Zandschlup R75
Jakub Mensic Walk over
Lorenzo Musetti R5 - Musetti won both sets then retired

Tonight's men's semis should be good. But the way this event is going Djokovic is a rolled ankle and some bad sushi away from passing Margaret Court's 24 slam titles !!! with an " * "


Meanwhile, the women's matches continue the Australian Open's streak of straight set steamrollers. I can't recall seeing so many, Very peculiar.

Women's final of Rybakina vs Sabalenka might, I hope, be good. Maybe.

[stotty]

I didn’t think Novak could possibly pull that one off. He has an amazing ability not to buckle.

[jimlosaltos]

I didn’t think Novak could possibly pull that one off. He has an amazing ability not to buckle.

Yup. Echoes of big matches Fed lost to Novak over the years. Sinner only broke his serve twice (2) despite having eighteen (18) breakpoints.

Sinner was constantly in Novak serve and couldn't close the deal, while Djokovic barely got a sniff on Sinner's serve, winning only 27% of return points vs Sinner's 35% -- yet broke him 3 times.

Here are the "extended highlights" about 8 minutes if YT and the Forum are talking these days:

[jimlosaltos]

Interesting table by Jeff Sackman shows how great Djokovic's escape was, best among 'Slam semis he says.
I had forgotten by Kei Nishikori did something similar to Novak .... USO 2014

Sackman at Tennis Abstract: " "Amazing clutch performance from Djokovic. He won just under 48% of total points. He won 27% of return points, compared to Sinner's 35%. Both the TPW {* Total Points Won ] and Dominance Ratio are the most extreme of any major semi-final in the ATP stat-keeping era:" These are all SEMIFINALS, I believe.


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[jimlosaltos]

Since I got this question elsewhere: In Djokovic's 2019 Wimbledon title win over Fed, his "total points won" was only 48.3% and his "dominance ratio" { or a player's percentage of return points won by their percentage of service points lost} was 0.87 DR.

So by those measures, Djokovic pulled off an even greater escape last night than in 2019.

[stotty]

Pat Cash, in the fifth set, was asked who did he think was going to win the match. He replied Novak. Sinner, he said, was having one of those days where he was just never going to break serve. Pat was right. Despite having umpteen chance (and have in mind Novak was spot serving very well), Sinner simply couldn't convert.

In the 2019 Wimbledon final it was a similar picture other than Novak served woefully yet still managed to hang on to his serve, which Roger failed to break despite having really good chances to do so. The bottom line with that final is Roger choked…serving 40-15 up with a mid-court forehand sitting up to be hit. The memory of that will live with me forever. My son (massive Roger fan) has never gotten over it.

I wonder what Novak has left in the tank for Sunday?

[jimlosaltos]

Pat Cash, in the fifth set, was asked who did he think was going to win the match. He replied Novak. Sinner, he said, was having one of those days where he was just never going to break serve. Pat was right. Despite having umpteen chance (and have in mind Novak was spot serving very well), Sinner simply couldn't convert.

In the 2019 Wimbledon final it was a similar picture other than Novak served woefully yet still managed to hang on to his serve, which Roger failed to break despite having really good chances to do so. The bottom line with that final is Roger choked…serving 40-15 up with a mid-court forehand sitting up to be hit. The memory of that will live with me forever. My son (massive Roger fan) has never gotten over it.

I wonder what Novak has left in the tank for Sunday?

Both players actually. Carlos got a controversial medical treatment for what looked like cramping or "leg issues". I didn't see that match yet.

Ah, here's coverage: "The drama began in the third set, with just over two hours on the match clock. Alcaraz had previously vomited twice in the third set, and at 4-4 while already up two sets, winced after hitting a volley and his movement became compromised. Alcaraz pushed the limits of the permissible 25 seconds between points but did not receive a time violation from chair umpire Marijana Veljovic. After holding for a 5-4 lead, he received medical attention for what appeared to be an upper-leg injury and cramp, before Veljovic announced to the fans that Alcaraz would be receiving a medical timeout

https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/this-is-bulls-alexander-zverev-fumes-about-then-accepts-carlos-alcaraz-cramp-drama-at-australian-open