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Sinner-Fonseca Round One Goes To ...

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  • Sinner-Fonseca Round One Goes To ...

    You. Must. See. This Match.

    Or at least watch some highlights or something.​

    filedata/fetch?id=108945&d=1773255163&type=thumb
    Caption: Image derived from frames by Tennis TV. No Kygrios, Rune stuff here, Joao did the apology racket wave and Jannik gave a quick thumbs up. Sportsmanship in the era of strutting bluster. How quaint.


    Meanwhile, some links.


    The first of presumably many matches between 24 yo Jannik Sinner and 19 yo Brazilian Joao Fonseca exceeded even the hype. After he won the NexGen finals for young ATP players in 2024, then in 2025 downed Andrey Rublev, captured the Argentine Open and ATP 500 tournament in Basel, the questions started. Joao answered the first question emphatically last night:

    "Can Joao Fonseca join Sincarz to form a new Big 3 {and make tennis a lot more interesting than us simpy watching Carlos and Jannik play every Sunday?"

    "YES", Joao's game roared in answer.

    The next question is much tougher: "Will Joao-Carlos-Jannik form a new Big 3?". That will take more time, commitment, consistency, fitness, and luck than Joao has yet proven. But it will be entertaining for us learning the answer.


    Jannik Sinner won his premiere meeting with Joao Fonseca 7-6(6), 7-6(4). But the match was a dog fight all the way with the younger teen often dictating play behind the biggest weapon on the court - his forehand -- and a suddenly improved serve. Joao was up three (3) set points in the first set tiebreaker, before Jannik came back with some bravely aggressive play. Then in the second, Joao came back from 2-5 down before falling in the second tiebreak.

    Joao won more baseline points than the world number 2 who statistically has both the best forehand and the best backhand on the ATP. But what surprised even more was Joao's serve. Yes, we've known for some time that he can pop 130 mphs at will. What I had not seen was such control and variety. First, Joao was regularly making 130+ MPH serves landing around the centerline, short on ad court serves, eventually pushing Sinner -- also, statistically, the best returner on tour -- back from the baseline. That's not easy to do. But beyond that, Joao shows great confidence, changed pace and placement even on pressure points.

    With Sinner displaced from his comfort zone crowding servers, Joao then hit slowish, wide slice serves in the deuce court, and t-serves in the ad court. Normally, Sinner attacks wide slice like no one else today, except perhaps his nemesis Alcaraz. Not last night because he was pushed back and, I'm guessing, he couldn't read Joao's serve. That latter factor might change with more matches.

    So, how did Jannik win with his normal stat-sheet advantage impudently erased by the upstart? First, Sinner also served tremendously. The third-generation of Jannik's service motion is more about placement than pace and Jannik placed the ball within 2 feet of the sideline or baseline about 80% of the time. Jannik had 15 aces to 9. Plus Jannik played great defense, and came to the net more. That's about a 12 point difference in a match where he won only 2 more points overall.

    So, dust off your Betamax, X-Box, or whatever you record on, and watch this event. It could well prove historic.​
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    Last edited by jimlosaltos; 03-11-2026, 03:08 PM.

  • #2
    Here are final match stats that I believe are accurate {Earlier stats on a couple of sites were contradictory and/or mislabelled.

    Sinner found his timing vs Joao's forehand in the second set as he surged to a 5-3 game lead, and that accounts for his 20-16 lead in winners on that side. Joao had led that stat until then. But look at the forced errors - Joao's heavy shot, presumably, led to an uncharacteristic 29 forced errors by Sinner vs 17 for the big-swinging Brazilian. I believe those are total errors, since they've oddly broken out winners by forehand/backhand but not errors. And, as stated yesterday, the teenager won the baseline battle overall with 43 points to 39.

    Sinner had a narrow edge in shorter rallies.​

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    • #3
      While groundstroke velocities from their premiere bout are strangely absent, here, for perspective, is a Tennis Insight infographic for Joao's forehand from another of his matches this week, that vs Tommy Paul. The average speed of Joao's topspin forehands was 80 MPH with 3,130 RPMs. For perspective, Rafa would often average in the high 70 mphs with a bit more spin, say 3,300-3,400 RPMs. TDI's synthetic stat of 'shot quality' puts Joao's forehand at a lofty 9.5, way above the ATP average of 7.3

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