2021 Australian Open...ATP 2000...Melbourne, Australia

[stotty]

ESPN: What Rafael Nadal's Australian Open loss means for Federer, Djokovic and career Slams race.
https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/...eer-slams-race

Interesting. I slightly disagree and feel Novak's further wins can come equally from any slam event except perhaps the FO. Novak had elbow problems that kept him out for the 2017 season and meant he had to withdraw at the quarters of Wimbledon that year. Then the COVID crisis hit and Wimbledon last year was cancelled. Then he hit a line woman in the mouth. All these unfortunate things add up. And while Novak was out for that season Rafa and Roger cleaned up two slams each.

Equally, Rafa has missed 9 slams through injury and withdrew injured from one FO in 2016. You have to believe he might have won a few of those missed slams...especially the 2016 FO.

Roger has now been out for a year also.

What might have been...should have been...who knows. Rafa is clearly the unluckiest overall but then life doesn't know the meaning of fair. Still, he's done pretty well.

[stroke]

ESPN: What Rafael Nadal's Australian Open loss means for Federer, Djokovic and career Slams race.

https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/30917411/what-rafael-nadal-australian-open-loss-means-federer-djokovic-career-slams-race

[don_budge]

2021 Australian Open...Melbourne, Australia...Novak Djokovic versus The Unknown Russian quarterfinal match

A foregone conclusion.

[stroke]

As Pat McEnroe said, " the boa constrictor is squeezing."

[stotty]

Spoke to soon. Djokovic breaks straight back. Very robotic this Karatsev. I have certainly seen more entertaining players.

[stotty]

Great game by Karatsev to break back...2-2 in the third.

[stotty]

Karatsev has gone on the blink again...could be over quick if he doesn't watch it.

[stotty]

Good to see Osaka bumped Serena out. I can't see Serena winning anymore in their match up.

[stotty]

After a slight glitch, Novak goes 2 sets to love up. Karatsev starting to settle a bit and might make a game of it.

[stroke]

Novak seems completely locked in. No grimacing and such.

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Medvedev at a 69% chance of winning vs Stef, slightly stronger favorite than Nadal was vs Stef. Novak is about 93% vs Karatsev. I think, not that it matters, that Stef's less than top shelf slice backhand is way more of an issue vs Medvedev than it was vs Nadal. Nadal just brutalizes a slice backhand with his run around forehand, no matter where it is on the court. No matter if it is short enough in the court to cause most players some discomfort. Medvedev can be made to feel uncomfortable with the short knifing Fed slicing backhand, but Stef does not really have it, as DB has pointed out. That being said, the last 3 sets vs Nadal, his backhand to me is what enabled him to win the match vs Nadal, just as Fed did back in 2017 AO final win vs Nadal. A one hander standing up to the Nadal forehand. To me, the only 2 one handers that have done that.

[don_budge]

I believe that Djokovic should be able to handle the unknown Russian. But if the Russian can test the physical condition he has a prayer. Stefanos runs into another brick wall against Daniil Medvedev...albeit with younger legs. Fresher legs at that. He has barely broken a sweat save the match against Fuscovics. But even there Medvedev was able to walk it home with a love fifth set. Stefanos also has the tactical conundrum of the slightly "unorthodox" game of the Russian. He doesn't give you the consistent high ball players are used to playing. His deception and mercurial nature is also a bit hard to fathom. He doesn't make you comfortable...he can make you feel like you are playing on a slippery slope. This is going to be one uphill battle for Tsitsipas and it is the perfect test for "Mr. Pencil" at this point in the tournament. I almost would have preferred Medvedev playing Nadal because I think that Medvedev would have worked on the Nadal legs earlier in the match. It would have been interesting.

Tsitsipas did serve impressively once he had Nadal on the ropes. He was consistently serving out wide, which made all the sense in the world tactically speaking. He will help his cause tremendously against Medvedev if he pours the first serve in on an extremely high statistical basis. If he has to take a bit off with the velocity...he can make up for it with strategic placement. The trade off for a high percentage of first serves would be a good investment.

[don_budge]

2021 Australian Open...Melbourne, Australia...Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Rafael Nadal quarterfinal match

Interesting match...Stefanos Tsitsipas versus Rafael Nadal. I left after two sets. It appeared to be a meaningless repeat of something we have seen so many times. A Nadal beatdown where the opponent does not possess a remedial tennis IQ to change the tempo of the game. Everyone plays Nadal at his own game and they get their asses handed to them every single time. What is the definition of insanity...repeating the same thing and expecting a different result. Crazy, isn't it?

After walking the dogs and various other things. Cleaning the stable. I came back to the computer to check on the final result. What I found was they were still going at it. I don't think I missed anything. Not a thing. It looked to be a war of attrition. By the time I came back to the game Nadal was on thin ice. Struggling physically. He couldn't mount a challenge on the Tsitsipas service game and he poured all of his effort into his own serve...trying to get to the tiebreak where he could give it one last stab. Stefanos for his part struggled at the end getting the horse in the barn. He served for the match and he made a mess of it. He went down love-30 but managed to get it even. Nadal had a couple of swings at break points but couldn't convert. His legs were gone. His strongest asset. His desire could no longer compensate for spent legs. This happens when you reach thirty something. Stefanos won on his youth. Not on his IQ.

A couple of things about Stefanos. I think the little flaw in his service motion hindered his chance of serving out the match cleanly. The nerves were going full throttle and he just couldn't get the right levers to produce a good first serve. Physically he is a tremendous specimen. Even with Nadal now going down the slippery slope of decline, he is a dangerous opponent for all of the obvious reasons. Stefanos has a bit of a low tennis IQ judging by the standard of Mats Wilander's statement the other day about Andrei Rublev. It is the number of shot you possess in your repertoire. The Tsitsipas backhand is a truly glorious looking shot but as it stands it has more potential to be developed. Basically he has just two shots off that wing...hard and harder. This kind of ball is what a player of Nadal's or Djokovic's stature like. Medvedev too. It would be very difficult to overpower the lefty forehand or the two-handed backhand of those calibers. Our discussion about the relative merits of the slice would not be lost on this player. This is glaringly lacking in the Tsitsipas repertoire. You almost get a sense of ego involved sometimes. As if playing tactically or intelligently would be a condescending surrender. Patience is a virtue...in life and in tennis.

I believe that he could have taken Nadal's legs out earlier in the match and he was playing with fire trying to win a match at this point in the tournament with his all out, win or nothing approach. Now the energy expended in the quarter might just take its toll in the semi's. If he would somehow get by Medvedev to play Djokovic or the unknown Russian in the final then he might just come out somewhat flat. Not for sure...it is only speculation from an empirical statistical analysis. After all...this is what don_budge always does. Performance analyst. Metaphysically speaking.

[don_budge]

Watching Brady vs. Muchova with Brady serving for the match at 5-4 in the third. I am laughing to myself a bit as I watch Brady really struggling to control her nerves trying to get the horse in the barn. Anyone who has played competitive tennis at a high level know what a strange feeling this is. Somehow you have gotten yourself in position to win the match and nothing feels like it should. Brady cannot buy a first serve and Muchova could not buy a return on two second serves at break point. Pretty pathetic tennis overall. The women are getting paid equal money. I think, for instance, that Nadal and Tsitsipas may have earned their keep for their play. But comparatively speaking...this is a different universe. Equal means equal. It is a mathematical term. The definition is not lacking in clarity. But somehow we have engineered the differences between the sexes to being "equal". Not in my universe.

Brady manages to get the silly thing over the finish line. Hard to watch. The announcers are trying to gloss over it. The spectacle. Somehow it has become a great match instead a war of nerves.

Well said.

[don_budge]

Watching Brady vs. Muchova with Brady serving for the match at 5-4 in the third. I am laughing to myself a bit as I watch Brady really struggling to control her nerves trying to get the horse in the barn. Anyone who has played competitive tennis at a high level know what a strange feeling this is. Somehow you have gotten yourself in position to win the match and nothing feels like it should. Brady cannot buy a first serve and Muchova could not buy a return on two second serves at break point. Pretty pathetic tennis overall. The women are getting paid equal money. I think, for instance, that Nadal and Tsitsipas may have earned their keep for their play. But comparatively speaking...this is a different universe. Equal means equal. It is a mathematical term. The definition is not lacking in clarity. But somehow we have engineered the differences between the sexes to being "equal". Not in my universe.

Brady manages to get the silly thing over the finish line. Hard to watch. The announcers are trying to gloss over it. The spectacle. Somehow it has become a great match instead a war of nerves.