Madrid Open, Masters 1000

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Carlos as favorite at 64% implied probability of winning. At this point, one is probably paying a bit of a premium to bet on Alcaraz. Zverev definitely has a shot, if his 2nd serve holds up, or more realistically, he has a very high 1st serve percentage.

[stotty]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/S6ove9LRwdGpnzKQ6

Just a stunning display by Alvaraz. 35 forehand winners, and his drop shots are top shelf, no doubt. The first player ever to beat Nadal and Novak back to back on clay.

His style of play is just terrific and his drop slot played a significant part in the first two sets...I missed the third set. It will be an intriguing FO but neither Rafa or Novak are at their best just yet. The best is yet to come.

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/S6ove9LRwdGpnzKQ6

Just a stunning display by Alvaraz. 35 forehand winners, and his drop shots are top shelf, no doubt. The first player ever to beat Nadal and Novak back to back on clay.

[stotty]

Never thought I would see anyone drop shot as well as McEnroe but Alcaraz is pretty darn close.

[stotty]

7-6, 1-1

Good match so far. Novak soaking Alcaraz up so far but it ain't easy. Novak played a text book tiebreak...nothing new there.

[stroke]

Novak now a slight favorite, odds have shifted as I suppose because of money being placed on Novak. Very unusual. I have a feeling the ankle injury Carlos had yesterday vs Nadal will be an issue in the match.

[stroke]

Murray did it once also...ironically in Madrid. Novak v Alacaraz is going to be super interesting. I doubt anyone has beaten Rafa and Novak back to back in a long time.

Carlos is a slight favorite vs Novak Stef is a solid favorite over Zverev.

[jimlosaltos]

Murray did it once also...ironically in Madrid. Novak v Alacaraz is going to be super interesting. I doubt anyone has beaten Rafa and Novak back to back in a long time.

Fed in Hamburg won 10 straight games vs Rafa on clay to win from behind. Not disagreeing....

[stotty]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/C9fZ1A4fhmTDwiLo9

Well, I can only remember 1 other set where someone just completely dominated Nadal on clay,, Fognini one time. Nadal looks shell shocked.

Murray did it once also...ironically in Madrid. Novak v Alacaraz is going to be super interesting. I doubt anyone has beaten Rafa and Novak back to back in a long time.

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/C9fZ1A4fhmTDwiLo9

Well, I can only remember 1 other set where someone just completely dominated Nadal on clay,, Fognini one time. Nadal looks shell shocked.

[stroke]

Alcaraz through the 1st 6 games is hitting the bigger forehands, both from mph's and rpm's(per shotspot). His average forehand has 240 more rpm's than Nadal's. A new gold standard of forehands appears to be here.

[stroke]

Last Word On Sports: ATP Madrid Day 5 Predictions including Rafael Nadal vs David Goffin.

https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2022/05/04/atp-madrid-day-5-predictions-nadal-goffin/

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Alcaraz as a slight favorite over Nadal, with an implied probability of 53% of winning. Zverev favorite with an implied probability of 66% of winning vs FAA.

I am a little surprised at those odds on Alcaraz vs Nadal. To me, there is no reason why FAA cannot beat Alex. He has better movement and a better forehand, to me one of the best on tour. Alex does have a better backhand.

[stotty]

I agree, he is pretty good ha. To me, Nadal is the most vulnerable he has been ever at the FO, and that includes his 1st one, which of course he won, back in 2005, some 17 years ago. He is still the vulnerable favorite though.

I am personally picking Alcaraz though, but I miss a lot of picks.

I can't see Alcaraz beating Rafa at the FO. I still believe Novak is the only player that can do that. But I do believe Alcaraz versus Rafa has the potential for a great match up...shotmaker versus the human wall. I also think Alcaraz could give Novak a lot of problems with his drop shot, which looks about the best on tour right now.

[stroke]

Rafa's ability to save MPS is insane. Tops David Goffin (who is playing quite well), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(9), in three hours and nine minutes..
Save four (4) count 'em match points.
https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nada...-2022-thursday

Sadly, Andy Murray had to pull out of his match vs Djokovic. Good news, it's not his hip -- but a stomach ailment.

FAA over Sinner in pretty routine fashion, apparently 61 62

Here's a way-too-early metric: initial H2Hs between the potentially three best players born in the 00s:

Auger vs Alcaraz 1:0
Auger vs. Sinner 1:0
Alcaraz vs. Sinner 1:0 (2:0)

I finally get to watch a bit -- Alcaraz vs Norrie. Their match in Indian Wells was a lung buster. But then Madrid's clay plays faster than IW's sandpaper.

I agree, he is pretty good ha. To me, Nadal is the most vulnerable he has been ever at the FO, and that includes his 1st one, which of course he won, back in 2005, some 17 years ago. He is still the vulnerable favorite though.

I am personally picking Alcaraz though, but I miss a lot of picks.